Monday - October 15, 2007

We’re brainwashing our children

Heh.  Apparently, there are some scientists who are not impressed with the Goracle’s prize.

Gore gets a cold shoulder

ONE of the world’s foremost meteorologists has called the theory that helped Al Gore share the Nobel Peace Prize “ridiculous” and the product of “people who don’t understand how the atmosphere works”.

Dr William Gray, a pioneer in the science of seasonal hurricane forecasts, told a packed lecture hall at the University of North Carolina that humans were not responsible for the warming of the earth.

His comments came on the same day that the Nobel committee honoured Mr Gore for his work in support of the link between humans and global warming.

“We’re brainwashing our children,” said Dr Gray, 78, a long-time professor at Colorado State University. “They’re going to the Gore movie [An Inconvenient Truth] and being fed all this. It’s ridiculous.”

At his first appearance since the award was announced in Oslo, Mr Gore said: “We have to quickly find a way to change the world’s consciousness about exactly what we’re facing.”

Mr Gore shared the Nobel prize with the United Nations climate panel for their work in helping to galvanise international action against global warming.

But Dr Gray, whose annual forecasts of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes are widely publicised, said a natural cycle of ocean water temperatures - related to the amount of salt in ocean water - was responsible for the global warming that he acknowledges has taken place.

However, he said, that same cycle meant a period of cooling would begin soon and last for several years.

“We’ll look back on all of this in 10 or 15 years and realise how foolish it was,” Dr Gray said.

During his speech to a crowd of about 300 that included meteorology students and a host of professional meteorologists, Dr Gray also said those who had linked global warming to the increased number of hurricanes in recent years were in error.

He cited statistics showing there were 101 hurricanes from 1900 to 1949, in a period of cooler global temperatures, compared to 83 from 1957 to 2006 when the earth warmed.

“The human impact on the atmosphere is simply too small to have a major effect on global temperatures,” Dr Gray said.

He said his beliefs had made him an outsider in popular science.

”It bothers me that my fellow scientists are not speaking out against something they know is wrong,” he said. “But they also know that they’d never get any grants if they spoke out. I don’t care about grants.”

Always follow the money...it will lead to the truth.

Posted by Drew458     on 10/15/2007 at 10:04 AM   
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   Friday - October 12, 2007

The Goreacle and the Prize

So I hear that AlGore won the Nobel Peace Prize.  I heard the story on NPR this morning and couldn’t decide if I wanted to laugh at how ridiculous the prize has become (Yasser Arafat, call your office) or throw up for the mis-information that was being spewed.

They said that the committee has “broadened” the definition of peace to embrace more activities.  In this year’s case, the idea is that when the planet gets so warm that life is unbearable, wars will break out.  Therefore, since AlGore is doing his damnedest to fight the warming onslaught of mankind, he is really promoting “Peace”.

Said the committee:

The struggle.  Its all about the struggle.

Never.  Nothing to see here. Move along now.

Posted by Drew458     on 10/12/2007 at 09:47 AM   
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   Thursday - October 04, 2007

Break Out The Long Underwear

With the track record of weather prognosticators, that is my recommendation after seeing this.

Warmer than average’ U.S. winter predicted

NEW YORK - Long-range weather forecasts are predicting a warmer than average winter with less precipitation for much of the United States except the Pacific Northwest.

“It will be a lot like last year but the climate models are even more in agreement now than they were last fall,” said Mike Halpert, head of forecast operations at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

Posted by Drew458     on 10/04/2007 at 04:23 PM   
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   Saturday - September 08, 2007

Glowbull Warming Update

Glowball Warming Coming!!!!!!!!
Women, Children and Bears to suffer worst.

WASHINGTON - Only a third of the world’s polar bears may be left within 50 years because of thinning sea ice from global warming in the Arctic, the U.S. Geological Survey said Friday

The agency projects that polar bears during that time also will lose 42 percent of the Arctic range they need to live in during summer in the Polar Basin when they need to hunt and breed.

Mark Myers, the USGS director, said the findings from U.S. and Canadian scientists are based on six months of new studies, during which the health of three polar bear groups and their dependency on Arctic sea ice were examined using “new and traditional models.[Those same models that can’t predict weather next week, right? -FC]”

They were made public to help guide Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne’s decision expected in January on his agency’s proposal to add the polar bear to the government’s endangered species list.

(emphasis mine)

Ahhh yes, now we see what the motivation is...to help guide the secretary in his decision.

Posted by Drew458     on 09/08/2007 at 12:00 PM   
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   Wednesday - August 29, 2007

Global Warming Update

First, the headline:
Scorching U.S. heat in 2006 blamed on humans

WASHINGTON (AP)—“We have met the enemy, and he is us,” the comic-strip character Pogo said decades ago. A new analysis of last year’s near-record temperatures in the United States suggests he was right.

Ok, so right off the bat we have an assertion.  What is the back up for that assertion?

Warming caused by human activity was the biggest factor in the high temperatures recorded in 2006, according to a report by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The analysis, released Tuesday, is being published in the September issue of Geophysical Research Letters, published by the American Geophysical Union.

In January, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center reported that 2006 was the warmest year on record over the 48 contiguous states with an average temperature 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal and 0.07 degree warmer than 1998, the previous warmest year on record.

Wow, pretty compelling stuff.  But wait, I thought I read something about there being an issue with the algorithm they used to calcualte the “warmest year on record”.

In May, however, NOAA revised the 2006 ranking to the second warmest year after updated statistics showed the year was actually .08 F cooler than 1998.

Damn those statistics.  OK, so it wasn’t the warmest year on record, but it can still be blamed on homo-sapiens, right?

At the time the agency said it was not clear how much of the warming was a result of greenhouse-gas induced climate change and how much resulted from the El Niño warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that was under way.

“We wanted to find out whether it was pure coincidence that the two warmest years on record both coincided with El Niño events,” Martin Hoerling of NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, said in a statement.

His study looked at the effects of El Niño in the past as well as the effects of the release of gases such as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by human industrial activities.

The analysis of past El Niño events in the 20th century found that the result was a slightly colder than normal annual average temperature over the 48 contiguous states.

To double check that, the researchers conducted two sets of 50-year computer simulations of U.S. climate, with and without the influence of El Niño. They again found a slight cooling across the nation when El Niño was present.

Then they looked at the effect of the increased greenhouse gases—which are given that name because they can help trap heat from the sun somewhat like a greenhouse traps heat.

Let me see if I understand.  We have actual data to use from the past 50 years, so what they did was run a couple of simulations to see what the computers thought would happen if the situation was different.  Then they looked at the effect of increased greenhouse gases (meaning different than what actually happened) and found:

They ran 42 different tests using complex computer models to simulate changes in the atmosphere under various conditions and concluded that the “2006 warmth was primarily due to human influences.”

Ooooooo.  Complex computer models....I’m impressed.  Are those the same models that can’t accurately predict the weather 15 days from now?  The same ones that, given actual data, cannot predict what actually happened when they test history?

Yeah, I’m up with your conclusion here pal.  Hows about you go back to your complex computer models and try to get them to accurately model reality first, then we’ll give you a shot at predicting the future. 

Mkay?

Posted by Drew458     on 08/29/2007 at 08:50 AM   
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   Friday - August 17, 2007

Al Gore Is Ahead of His Time

This is the actual headline at the Washington Post:

Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish and Icebergs Melt.

Of course, the problem is that it is from the issue dated Nov. 2, 1922

D.C. resident John Lockwood was conducting research at the Library of Congress and came across an intriguing Page 2 headline in the Nov. 2, 1922 edition of The Washington Post: “Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish and Icebergs Melt.”

The 1922 article, obtained by Inside the Beltway, goes on to mention “great masses of ice have now been replaced by moraines of earth and stones,” and “at many points well-known glaciers have entirely disappeared.”

“This was one of several such articles I have found at the Library of Congress for the 1920s and 1930s,” says Mr. Lockwood. “I had read of the just-released NASA estimates, that four of the 10 hottest years in the U.S. were actually in the 1930s, with 1934 the hottest of all.”

In other news: climateaudit.org is back online.  Go have a look and bookmark them.

Posted by Drew458     on 08/17/2007 at 09:34 AM   
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   Friday - August 10, 2007

Wooops.  Ah. Err. Ahh.  Hmmmm.

I’ve told you before about Anthony Watts.  He has been cataloging the dismal setups of offical weather reporting stations around the country.  You know, the ones that prove ”Global Warming”?

Anyhoo, one of his colleagues was researching an anomoly at a Detraoit Lake, MN site and came across something totally astonishing.

Regular readers may remember that I posted about a climate station in Detroit Lakes MN last week, surveyed by volunteer Don Kostuch, and cross posted it to the website http://www.climateaudit.org that had two air conditioner units right next to it. It looked like an obvious cause and effect because in 1999 on May 5th, it was determined that the a/c units were moved off the roof of the radio station where this station resides and moved them to the ground where the temperature sensor is close by.

However, some folks on the blogosphere just went, well, a little ballistic over that assertion. It was a good thing too, because their very loud and somewhat uncivil complaints led to an examination of this idea: if its not the a/c units, what then did cause the temperature jump at that time?

Steve McIntyre, of Toronto operates http://www.climateaudit.org and began to investigate the data and the methods used to arrive at the results that were graphed by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS).

What he discovered was truly amazing. Since NASA does not fully publish the computer source code and formulae used to calculate the trends in the graph, nor the correction used to arrive at the “corrected” data. He had to reverse engineer the process by comparing the raw data and the processed data..

Here is one of his first posts where he begins to understand what is happening.

“This imparts an upward discontinuity of a deg C in wintertime and 0.8 deg C annually. I checked the monthly data and determined that the discontinuity occurred on January 2000 - and, to that extent, appears to be a Y2K problem. I presume that this is a programming error.”

He further refines his argument showing the distribution of the error, and the problems with the USHCN temperature data. He also sends an email to NASA GISS advising of the problem.

He finally publishes it here, stating that NASA made a correction not only on their own web page, attributing the discovery to McIntyre, but NASA also issued a corrected set of temperature anomaly data which you can see here:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.txt

Go read the links to fully understand what Steve found.  The bottom line is this: A programming bug in the NASA programs misreported the high tempuratures.  It reshuffles the 10 “hottest days evah”.

The Daily Tech puts it this way:

Posted by Drew458     on 08/10/2007 at 03:30 PM   
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   Monday - July 09, 2007

Measuring Glowball Warming

I told you before about the work of one Anthony Watts.  He is a former weather dude who is on a mission to make sure the government is measuring tempurature properly.  You see, they have monitoring stations all over the country, with very specific criteria for placement so as to minimize the impact of machines, blacktop and other man-made things on the measurements.

He has been documenting poorly placed monitoring stations for months now, but today’s takes the cake.

In traveling around California and Nevada to look at NOAA USHCN climate monitoring weather stations I’ve seen some odd things. I’ve seen temperature sensors near asphalt and concrete, sensors placed within feet of buildings and cars, sensors placed near air conditioner exhausts, and sensors that had barbeque grills in the vicinity.

Last Friday June 6th, I traveled to Santa Rosa, CA to the Press Democrat Newspaper, a wholly owned subsidiary of the New York Times, which according to NOAA, has the climate station of record for Santa Rosa.

I figured it would be a fairly straightforward survey, and that I’d probably find the temperature sensor near the back of the building by the parking lot, as I’ve found many others placed. I figured it would look a lot like our local newspaper, the Chico Enterprise Record, weather station. It is in the rear, in a bit of disrepair, missing some slats and part of its roof assembly, but otherwise ok.

But nothing prepared me for what I was about to find at the Santa Rosa Press Democrat.

This is why the whackos can claim “irrefutable evidence” of climbing tempuratures.

Posted by Drew458     on 07/09/2007 at 02:32 PM   
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   Friday - July 06, 2007

Fat People Are Killing The Polar Bears

Indeed.

Two recent gems from New Scientist magazine…

First up, Climate Change Sceptics Criticise Polar Bear Science, a story about some bad scientists, funded by bad money, who have apparently published some bad science in what is presumably a bad science journal, for bad reasons.

As the poster child for the climate change generation polar bears have come to symbolise the need to tackle climate change. But their popularity has attracted the attention of global warming sceptics funded by the oil industry, who have started to attack polar bear science.

Willie Soon’s paper, which appears in the journal Ecological Complexity, questions ‘whether polar bear populations really are declining and if sea ice, on which the animals hunt, will actually disappear as quickly as climate models predict.’ But that’s all New Scientist has to say about the science.

No need to really put science in a science journal when there are so many good feelings and opinions out there, is there?

Even more absurd is Say No to Global Guzzling - How the Obesity Epidemic is Aggravating Global Warming by Ian Roberts of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who appears to be offering an epidemiological perspective on global warming.

We tend to think of obesity only as a public-health problem, but many of its causes overlap with those of global warming. Car dependence and labour-saving devices have cut the energy people expend as they go about their lives, at the same time increasing the amount of fossil fuel they burn. It’s no coincidence that obesity is most prevalent in the US, where per capita carbon emissions exceed those of any other major nation, and it is becoming clear that obese people are having a direct impact on the climate.

Roberts speciously reasons that obese people, who (allegedly) consume 40% more calories than non obese people, (allegedly) use their cars more because they are too fat to move properly, and (allegedly) eat the kind of things which are more CO2 intensive, contribute disproportionately to global warming than their thin counterparts.

The one quote in the commnets is precious:

Posted by Drew458     on 07/06/2007 at 03:24 PM   
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   Thursday - July 05, 2007

TED - Hans Rosling

If you are not familiar with the TED conference, it is a gathering of real thinkers (and some loons) to give short, 18 minute talks about what is important in their worlds.  It started as a conference about Technology, Entertainment and Design (TED), but has expanded to cover much more.  To be sure, there is a plethora of liberal thought spread thickly throughout this community, but amongst the chaff, there is some good wheat.

This talk is by Dr. Hans Rosen.  He makes some claims about CO2 emissions and climate change that you will most likely take issue with, but don’t let that keep you from missing some very interesting points he is making.  Also, the software he is using is absolutely amazing in terms of statistical Visualization (my pet project for the past couple of years).  Finally, his conclusions about the means and goals of helping the developing countries is fascinating to me.

What do you think?

Posted by Drew458     on 07/05/2007 at 10:54 AM   
Filed Under: • Africa • Climate-Weather • Colleges-Professors • Health-Medicine • International •  
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The Goreacle Strikes Again!

Freaking. Unbelievable.  I wish I was this consistant.

Within an hour, its devastating work was done. Hailstones the size of marbles had battered Battersea and flashfloods caused chaos in Clapham. Lightning lit up the blackened sky.

For a brief period this afternoon, parts of South London were deluged by a freak hailstorm.

Of course, Gore was attending the Dead Earth event in London.  Tim Blair notes that crickets seem to be the ones attending.

DEAD EARTH
Turkey: Less than three weeks after Al Gore, the environmental campaigner and former vice president, visited Istanbul to announce its participation in the round-the-world Live Earth concerts on July 7, organizers announced yesterday that the city had been dropped from the roster of nine sites because of a lack of interest ...

South Africa: Organizers seeking to stimulate lagging ticket sales moved the Live Earth concert to the 18,000-seat Coca-Cola Dome in Johannesburg ...

Germany: Only half of the tickets have been sold. Hamburg tourist officials are giving away the tickets in promotional packages.

Brazil: Brazilian authorities have obtained a court injunction suspending the Rio show of the Live Earth global series of concerts set for Saturday on concerns about security in the crime-hit city.

Mweh.

Posted by Drew458     on 07/05/2007 at 09:10 AM   
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   Wednesday - June 20, 2007

That’s Inconvenient

See on RightWingNews.

China has overtaken the United States as the world’s biggest producer of carbon dioxide, the chief greenhouse gas, figures released today show.

The surprising announcement will increase anxiety about China’s growing role in driving man-made global warming and will pile pressure onto world politicians to agree a new global agreement on climate change that includes the booming Chinese economy. China’s emissions had not been expected to overtake those from the US, formerly the world’s biggest polluter, for several years, although some reports predicted it could happen as early as next year.

Well, that’s problematic, isn’t it?  Are the patchouli-drenched watermelons now going to turn their angst toward China and away from the U.S.?  Of course not.

The whole Kyoto “treaty” was designed to pusnish and hamstring America.  It has nothing to do with actually helping reduce “greenhouse gasses” at all.  Plus, in the words of John Hawkins:

Indeed.

Posted by Drew458     on 06/20/2007 at 09:46 AM   
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   Tuesday - June 19, 2007

How Not To Measure Global Warming

So there’s this guy named Anthony Watts in Chico, CA.  Anthony was a TV meterologist and wanted to do a little survey.  He was interested in the actual locations that report on the weather.  All over the country, there are little weather reporting stations set up at airports, firehouses and other locations.  These stations report into the NWS and get used all over to predict and report the weather.

Their data is also used in climate modeling.

Anthony thought it might be a good idea to have a look and see what kind of conditions these weather stations are in.  Are they set up properly?  Are they being influenced by their local surroundings?

Boy oh boy, what did he find?

- Monitoring stations set up 10 feet behind a window A/C unit, with the exhaust flowing right over the sensors
- A station set up next to a burn barrel at a state park
- A station at an airport, 10 feet from the tarmac where jet blast regularly washes over the unit.
- Much, much more.

It is totally unbelievable.

Here is a link to his blog.  He has another site with many more pictures and documentation, but after he got a Drudge-a-launch, he had to take it offline and move it to a fatter internet pipe...which should be up soon.

Have a look and be absolutely stunned.

Posted by Drew458     on 06/19/2007 at 12:31 PM   
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   Sunday - June 10, 2007

Al Gore’s Continuing Assault on Glowball Warming

Tim Blair notes:

According to the National Weather Service, on Sunday June 3, the temperature in Seattle reached 84 degrees.

But on Monday the high was only 69 ... today’s high temp thus far is 60 ... tomorrow’s forecast is for high 50s.

Yes, the Goracle arrived in town on Monday.

This is really beginning to get funny.  God is laughing at this little gem of a man who purports that we humans are strong enough to cause global climate change.  So the Creator decides to show him who is really in charge of the weather!

I just hope he doesn’t come to the Shenandoah Valley....We’re having a lovely spring.

Posted by Drew458     on 06/10/2007 at 06:04 AM   
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