Wednesday - August 29, 2007

Global Warming Update

First, the headline:
Scorching U.S. heat in 2006 blamed on humans

WASHINGTON (AP)—“We have met the enemy, and he is us,” the comic-strip character Pogo said decades ago. A new analysis of last year’s near-record temperatures in the United States suggests he was right.

Ok, so right off the bat we have an assertion.  What is the back up for that assertion?

Warming caused by human activity was the biggest factor in the high temperatures recorded in 2006, according to a report by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The analysis, released Tuesday, is being published in the September issue of Geophysical Research Letters, published by the American Geophysical Union.

In January, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center reported that 2006 was the warmest year on record over the 48 contiguous states with an average temperature 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal and 0.07 degree warmer than 1998, the previous warmest year on record.

Wow, pretty compelling stuff.  But wait, I thought I read something about there being an issue with the algorithm they used to calcualte the “warmest year on record”.

In May, however, NOAA revised the 2006 ranking to the second warmest year after updated statistics showed the year was actually .08 F cooler than 1998.

Damn those statistics.  OK, so it wasn’t the warmest year on record, but it can still be blamed on homo-sapiens, right?

At the time the agency said it was not clear how much of the warming was a result of greenhouse-gas induced climate change and how much resulted from the El Niño warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that was under way.

“We wanted to find out whether it was pure coincidence that the two warmest years on record both coincided with El Niño events,” Martin Hoerling of NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, said in a statement.

His study looked at the effects of El Niño in the past as well as the effects of the release of gases such as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by human industrial activities.

The analysis of past El Niño events in the 20th century found that the result was a slightly colder than normal annual average temperature over the 48 contiguous states.

To double check that, the researchers conducted two sets of 50-year computer simulations of U.S. climate, with and without the influence of El Niño. They again found a slight cooling across the nation when El Niño was present.

Then they looked at the effect of the increased greenhouse gases—which are given that name because they can help trap heat from the sun somewhat like a greenhouse traps heat.

Let me see if I understand.  We have actual data to use from the past 50 years, so what they did was run a couple of simulations to see what the computers thought would happen if the situation was different.  Then they looked at the effect of increased greenhouse gases (meaning different than what actually happened) and found:

They ran 42 different tests using complex computer models to simulate changes in the atmosphere under various conditions and concluded that the “2006 warmth was primarily due to human influences.”

Ooooooo.  Complex computer models....I’m impressed.  Are those the same models that can’t accurately predict the weather 15 days from now?  The same ones that, given actual data, cannot predict what actually happened when they test history?

Yeah, I’m up with your conclusion here pal.  Hows about you go back to your complex computer models and try to get them to accurately model reality first, then we’ll give you a shot at predicting the future. 

Mkay?

Posted by Drew458     on 08/29/2007 at 08:50 AM   
Filed Under: • Climate-Weather •  
• Comments (3) • Trackbacks(0)  Permalink •  

DISCLAIMER

THE SERVICES AND MATERIALS ON THIS WEBSITE ARE PROVIDED "AS IS" AND THE HOSTS OF THIS SITE EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, TO THE EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO WARRANTIES OF SATISFACTORY QUALITY, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, WITH RESPECT TO THE SERVICE OR ANY MATERIALS.

Not that very many people ever read this far down, but this blog was the creation of Allan Kelly and his friend Vilmar. Vilmar moved on to his own blog some time ago, and Allan ran this place alone until his sudden and unexpected death partway through 2006. We all miss him. A lot. Even though he is gone this site will always still be more than a little bit his. We who are left to carry on the BMEWS tradition owe him a great debt of gratitude, and we hope to be able to pay that back by following his last advice to us all:

1. Keep a firm grasp of Right and Wrong
2. Stay involved with government on every level and don't let those bastards get away with a thing
3. Use every legal means to defend yourself in the event of real internal trouble, and, most importantly:
4. Keep talking to each other, whether here or elsewhere

It's been a long strange trip without you Skipper, but thanks for pointing us in the right direction and giving us a swift kick in the behind to get us going. Keep lookin' down on us, will ya? Thanks.

THE INFORMATION AND OTHER CONTENTS OF THIS WEBSITE ARE DESIGNED TO COMPLY WITH THE LAWS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. THIS WEBSITE SHALL BE GOVERNED BY AND CONSTRUED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LAWS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND ALL PARTIES IRREVOCABLY SUBMIT TO THE JURISDICTION OF THE AMERICAN COURTS. IF ANYTHING ON THIS WEBSITE IS CONSTRUED AS BEING CONTRARY TO THE LAWS APPLICABLE IN ANY OTHER COUNTRY, THEN THIS WEBSITE IS NOT INTENDED TO BE ACCESSED BY PERSONS FROM THAT COUNTRY AND ANY PERSONS WHO ARE SUBJECT TO SUCH LAWS SHALL NOT BE ENTITLED TO USE OUR SERVICES UNLESS THEY CAN SATISFY US THAT SUCH USE WOULD BE LAWFUL.

Copyright © 2004-2015 Domain Owner