Thursday - October 09, 2008

US intelligence: Afghanistan in ‘downward spiral’ under Hamid Karzai’s government.

There are those here who are saying we (USA) is wrong to believe that the war against the Taliscum can be won.  Who knows? I sure don’t have any sort of great insight into this thing.  I just want us to get it over with. And if that means NUKES, that’s okay with me. Why is our side so afraid to use them?
Look, like it or not and sooner or later, those folks are gonna find a way to get em too.  Isn’t it better we kill em all now, before they get that chance?

I am reminded of an old expression.  Crap or get off the pot.  Well, we need to crap on these life forms before they do it to us. And they surely will in time.

I heard a very interesting program on the BBC last week on the failure (possibly) of us “winning hearts and minds” over there.  It was not I want you to know, an anti American rant. Anyway, some administration spokesman said that we (Americans) invented public relations and now here we are being beaten at our own game by a guy in a cave.

There was an interview with some old guy over there who said (and honestly believed what he heard) that after 9/11 hundreds of thousands of Americans converted to Islam and that more were doing so every day. And he really did believe that because AlQueda told him so. It was being broadcast on their radio and spoken about in their mosques.

America’s intelligence agencies believe that Afghanistan is in a “downward spiral” and President Hamid Karzai’s government may be incapable of containing the Taliban’s challenge, according to an assessment now being drafted.

By David Blair, Diplomatic Editor
Last Updated: 5:16PM BST 09 Oct 2008

Facing a spreading Taliban insurgency, the White House has begun a comprehensive review of policy towards Afghanistan. A National Intelligence Estimate, representing the considered view of America’s 16 spy agencies, is now being prepared.

Its conclusions are thought to be deeply pessimistic, stressing the systemic weakness of Afghanistan’s central government and the damage caused by the burgeoning narcotics trade, which may account for about half of the country’s entire economy.

This assessment is expected to be completed after next month’s presidential election – and may remain classified. But officials told yesterday’s New York Times that its conclusion was that Afghanistan was in a “downward spiral”.

The assessment stresses two key trends: the increasingly sophisticated nature of the Taliban insurgency and the structural weakness of Mr Karzai’s government. Taliban fighters are now thought to have a permanent presence in 17 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces.

As well as conducting a classic insurgency – notably by killing 10 French troops in an ambush outside Kabul in August – they have also branched into urban terrorism against high profile targets. This year, attacks have been launched against the Serena Hotel and the Indian Embassy in the capital, Kabul.

But Mr Karzai’s government, mired in corruption, has little control over large areas of the country. The Afghan National Army (ANA) will have 86,000 troops by next summer and should eventually deploy 134,000 soldiers.

Yet foreign troops still bear the brunt of counter-insurgency efforts. In Iraq, US forces managed to pacify large areas by arming local militias. They may decide to do the same in Afghanistan, despite the danger that this will simply undermine the ANA and further weaken the central government.

Moreover, Afghanistan’s security is inextricably linked with the situation in neighbouring Pakistan. At present, Taliban fighters enjoy a haven in the Tribal Areas on Pakistan’s north-west frontier, where they are able to rearm and regroup before launching cross-border attacks. Pakistan’s lawless enclaves may also host al-Qaeda’s core leadership, possibly including Osama bin Laden.

American officials believe that Pakistan’s authorities have failed to cope with this threat and some elements of their security services, notably the Inter-Services Intelligence agency, may be covertly helping the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

“Unfortunately, what we’ve seen in the last six months is the Taliban getting more organised and to some extent having more co-operation with al-Qaeda,” said a senior US official.

He added that the “dangerous elements are very entrenched” and Pakistan’s security agencies were not fully engaged in the struggle, despite assurances from President Asif Ali Zardari.

“Getting all the people and all the instruments of government to line up in that direction is not as simple as giving a speech,” said the official. “We are not at the point where every instrument of national power in Pakistan is lined up to fight terrorism.”

http://tinyurl.com/4l8qjn

Posted by Drew458     on 10/09/2008 at 11:29 AM   
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