Thursday - July 24, 2008

Barack Obama lifts the spirits, but he’s not ‘The One’

Interesting commentary from Brit side.

By Iain Martin
Last Updated: 12:01am BST 24/07/2008

Even if it is not quite the second coming - this is at least his third visit - Barack Obama’s arrival on these shores will be regarded by his Anglo-supporters as a quasi-spiritual event.

While he may not be our saviour, he is promising to make the world we share with the US a safer place, and to behave in an exciting fashion on our television

For those Britons sick of the old-time religion of the Bush years, the arrival of “The One”, as the McCain team sarcastically refer to their rival, is accordingly a glorious, shining moment.

It follows years of misery in which Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and their pupil interpreted the nature of the threat correctly but bungled the response.

For those, like this writer, who began the century regarding Bush favourably (the thought seems very distant now), the appearance of a presidential contender who is comfortable in his own skin, eloquent, quick-witted and cool in his general demeanour does lift the spirits.

British Atlanticists who seek a return to a pre-Bush notion of the United States and want to be able to take pride in a pro-American outlook, should not be anything other than pleased that a candidate for this November’s election is so widely approved of.

But there is a rather large problem here: Barack Obama is not what many hope he is. And how could he be? It is said that we live in an age of super cynicism, of knowing, consumerist scepticism about the powerful and the promises they make, but still there are suckers when the zeitgeist candidate invokes the H word, or the “audacity of hope” as Obama puts it.

In America the gloss has come off the idea of Obama as the candidate for “hope” - though in Britain, less so - as some in the coalition for change he has built work out that, as was always going to be the case, he has begun to trim and behave like what he is: a politician.

Obama has come to Britain on at least three occasions, meeting Tony Blair in Number 10 in 2005 and before that, in 1997, attending his half sister’s wedding. He even turned out for the groom’s stag event, which appears to have involved a pub crawl through Wokingham during which “entertainment” from a stripogram was provided.

As a presidential candidate, he will have considerably less fun on this latest trip. Both major British party leaders (and even one former Labour leader who never misses a chance) want to be photographed alongside Obama and bathe in the reflected light.

David Cameron’s team excitedly point out that they have been scheduled in for some time, while the visit is slightly marred from Gordon Brown’s perspective by the Democrat’s decision to meet Blair.

Although Obama will be seen on the steps of Number 10, at this stage it appears that he will not be pictured there with Brown, as that style of welcome was not extended to John McCain when he came to Britain and the Prime Minister must consider diplomatic good form.

The thought lingers that the Obama team knows a picture with Blair is 10 times more powerful when beamed back home than a similar shot with Brown.

By the time Obama leaves, what will we have learnt? That he is a charming and impressive personality is beyond doubt, and that may be enough to carry him all the way to the White House. But does he, for example, have a realistic chance of achieving the objectives outlined in his recent speeches on foreign policy?

The Obama doctrine, such as it can be divined, seems to be that an America under his leadership would rebuild its alliances, deal with energy security and climate change, end the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan successfully and bring the struggle with al-Qaeda and the Taliban to a close.

These are laudable aims not far removed from McCain’s (or, let’s face it, anyone’s) aspirations, however close study of Obama’s utterances provides little indication of how any of them are to be achieved.

If he wins, alliances will be rebuilt quite easily by virtue of his magnetism and his second name not being Bush. For the rest, he will have to start spending the accumulated capital.

Take Afghanistan and the Pakistan border regions. Even if we want to end the fight with al-Qaeda and the Taliban, they started it and appear not to want to stop. This suggests more vigorous pursuit if closure is the goal.

He will have to be more hard-headed towards Pakistan than Bush; the US operation targeting al-Qaeda in Afghanistan must be forged together with the one being carried out by Nato, of which Britain is a part.

Then allies, freshly wooed, must provide more in terms of moral support and materiel. It becomes difficult to see how this will work. The German political class, and public, which is to be addressed in Berlin today with a speech intended to echo JFK, will take Obama’s rhetoric to mean they, and the rest of us in the West, can expect a quieter life than we have had since September 11.

The idea of a dove in the White House is popular, even though circumstances will force the next incumbent to be quite hawkish. A reckoning, and resentment, lie ahead.

Worse than that, when the world falls out love with Obama, as it will, his central weakness will be the lack of a clear ideological analysis to sustain him in times of unpopularity. In 1947, a great Democrat, Harry Truman, gave his name to a doctrine which set the West on the road to eventual victory in the Cold War.

Against the advice of many in the foreign policy elite, he said that, although we were tired of conflict - having just defeated one tyranny, fascism - the West would have to steel itself for a long struggle with another: communism.

Where the communists went, America and its allies would block the way. Only when Truman was out of office did the service he had done his country in grasping this truth become apparent. Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher inherited his view, believing that communism was economically and morally sick, and if we were strong enough we could defeat it. The rest is history.

The need is for a great foreign policy president of the quality of Truman, or Reagan. To win a long war begun by our enemies, we are going to need more than an attractive but essentially empty vessel.

http://tinyurl.com/6cls9u

Posted by Drew458     on 07/24/2008 at 03:13 PM   
Filed Under: • Miscellaneous • Politics • UK •  
• Comments (2) • Trackbacks(0)  Permalink •  

DISCLAIMER

THE SERVICES AND MATERIALS ON THIS WEBSITE ARE PROVIDED "AS IS" AND THE HOSTS OF THIS SITE EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, TO THE EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO WARRANTIES OF SATISFACTORY QUALITY, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, WITH RESPECT TO THE SERVICE OR ANY MATERIALS.

Not that very many people ever read this far down, but this blog was the creation of Allan Kelly and his friend Vilmar. Vilmar moved on to his own blog some time ago, and Allan ran this place alone until his sudden and unexpected death partway through 2006. We all miss him. A lot. Even though he is gone this site will always still be more than a little bit his. We who are left to carry on the BMEWS tradition owe him a great debt of gratitude, and we hope to be able to pay that back by following his last advice to us all:

1. Keep a firm grasp of Right and Wrong
2. Stay involved with government on every level and don't let those bastards get away with a thing
3. Use every legal means to defend yourself in the event of real internal trouble, and, most importantly:
4. Keep talking to each other, whether here or elsewhere

It's been a long strange trip without you Skipper, but thanks for pointing us in the right direction and giving us a swift kick in the behind to get us going. Keep lookin' down on us, will ya? Thanks.

THE INFORMATION AND OTHER CONTENTS OF THIS WEBSITE ARE DESIGNED TO COMPLY WITH THE LAWS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. THIS WEBSITE SHALL BE GOVERNED BY AND CONSTRUED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LAWS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND ALL PARTIES IRREVOCABLY SUBMIT TO THE JURISDICTION OF THE AMERICAN COURTS. IF ANYTHING ON THIS WEBSITE IS CONSTRUED AS BEING CONTRARY TO THE LAWS APPLICABLE IN ANY OTHER COUNTRY, THEN THIS WEBSITE IS NOT INTENDED TO BE ACCESSED BY PERSONS FROM THAT COUNTRY AND ANY PERSONS WHO ARE SUBJECT TO SUCH LAWS SHALL NOT BE ENTITLED TO USE OUR SERVICES UNLESS THEY CAN SATISFY US THAT SUCH USE WOULD BE LAWFUL.

Copyright © 2004-2015 Domain Owner