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Sarah Palin will pry your Klondike bar from your cold dead fingers.

calendar   Tuesday - July 14, 2020

Lies, Damn Lies, And Statistics

CDC appears to be fudging the COVID death numbers AGAIN

“New to us” is not the same as “new”. There can be quite a bit of lag time in collecting the COVID death data because it comes from so many sources. It looks like the CDC is taking recently received death data from some weeks ago and adding it to their “new” death count, instead of adjusting the old numbers. This creates an artificial, misleading spike, or at least amplifies any recent spike considerably.


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my very rough and hypothetical graph that illustrates the situation



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the accurate and more complex graph



Twitter user Kyle Lamb put together a chart showing the number of deaths reported by the Coronavirus Tracking Project linked to the China coronavirus.
The results of his work show that the CTP is adding deaths each week from prior periods that make the current period death totals appear greater than they really are and some of these additions are very suspect.
The number of deaths reported publicly come from the Covid Tracking Project.
...
In a typical mortality table you should see a few deaths being reported in week one and many more in the following few weeks but then the number of deaths reported that occurred during a specific week decrease as time goes by.  After a few weeks this lag in reporting diminishes and eventually all deaths are reported.  This is typical in the insurance industry where the industry accounts for deaths being reported on a consistent rate over time with very few claims reported after a few months from the date of event (i.e. the date someone died).  This may seem morbid to those not in the insurance industry but this is how it is done.  Rarely are there jumps in reporting in prior periods unless something odd is going on (e.g. fraud).

What Kyle Lamb shows in his analysis is that the CDC is reporting deaths on a weekly basis.  Many of the deaths are reported in the first few weeks after the death occurred

Another individual took the data from the CDC used by Kyle Lamb and created a chart showing anomalies in CDC reporting.  During this past week, the number of deaths reported included deaths from April which were suddenly reported this week.

Data reported by the CDC indicates that the China coronavirus reached its peak in mortality in April.  The number deaths reported this past week included thousands of deaths from April.  The CDC doesn’t share that the deaths reported in a given week include deaths from months ago.

There are several other charts at the link, but unless you’re a spreadsheet wizard they are difficult to understand. While there may be some kind of death spike going on right now, tacking on old numbers that you just got hold of as if they were new numbers is disingenuous. The CDC should know better. Doing it this wrong way smells like politics.


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Posted by Drew458   United States  on 07/14/2020 at 09:33 AM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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calendar   Thursday - July 09, 2020

A Rare Gem In Pandora’s Box o’COVID

Alas, it has now been repressed.

One NJ County Gets It Right. State Shuts Them Down.

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Warren County is the next county to the north of us. With 109,000 residents in 360 square miles, they’re about 20% smaller than us with about 20% fewer people. They’re also at least as Red Corner as we are, maybe more.

Their COVID updates are through a document, instead of the interactive dashboard our county uses. But it’s a well written document that explains things, instead of just dumping numbers and putting up graphs. They are not stoking the hysteria. Well done.

I read the local and state news sites, and the comments, nearly every day to try and stay abreast of this pandemic situation. While Warren County has been hit a bit harder than we have here in Hunterdon, they are also in the small group of least affected counties in the state. But those comments I read ... OMG, reading comments online can be torture ... so many people having a hissy fit because “they” are hiding the truth, hiding the good data, everything is politics, Murphy sucks, Trump sucks, you suck. Oy. But a big complaint is that “nobody” is putting out anything on how many people have recovered. Another is that the LTC data is hard to get locally, and misleading. I reply to a lot of these comments, and I’ve seen that my concept of active public cases has been picked up by several other folks.

But I didn’t know until yesterday that any county was actually publishing data that supported my idea. Warren has been. But now the state, NJDOH, has squashed recovery data. No longer going to look into it. Interesting, given that NJ has about 40% more contact tracers than needed. So instead of complaining, I politely asked why. You really do catch more flies with honey than vinegar.

Dear Warren County Public Information Department:

I read in the latest copy of the Warren COVID-19 weekly report that NJDOH ended recovery tracking on July 6.

With the latest spikes in the top of the state news, why was this done? I have read elsewhere that NJ has at least 1,000 more contract tracers than minimally required, which allows them to get the job done quickly. So insufficient staff can’t be the reason.

I think the COVID report put out by Warren County is excellent and informative. It may not be as high tech as Hunterdon’s interactive dashboard, but it provides clearly written explanations for the data presented. so it isn’t just numbers and graphs.

It also provides data analysis that few other counties have done, such as segregating the LTCF data from the rest of it. The patient recovery data is almost unique and is very reassuring.  Being able to subtract “restricted access” case numbers (LTCF and prison inmates) and recovered patient numbers from the overall cumulative case numbers is illuminating.  With these two data sets and the death numbers any person can quickly estimate how many active cases there are in public in the county. This goes a very long way towards calming the hysteria and giving the residents a more realistic awareness of the local situation. So why stop the recovery tracking, and the publication of that data? The sensible among us realize that masks and social distancing are going to be with us for quite some time, even long after the daily numbers approach zero.

Obviously Warren County has not been unique in making the effort to acquire patient recovery data, or else NJDOH wouldn’t have stopped this practice statewide. But Warren is the only county I’m aware of that has published this information and I think the lack of it going forward will not benefit the members of the public who have tried to stay well informed about this pandemic in their area.

I looked for information about this new practice at the NJDOH site but could find no mention of it, or the new software package being used by the contact tracers.



I got a response in under an hour. My query has been forwarded, and if they don’t respond in a couple days here’s a number you can call. And thanks for actually thinking ...

Again, thank you. It’s nice to hear from someone who reads beyond a photo and headline. Best wishes, and have a nice day.


The new case rate in Warren has fallen so much that they decided several weeks ago that it was no longer worth updating their documents daily, and switched over to weekly. Why spend the labor money for nothing? And they also publish the recovered numbers right on the main page of the county site, broken down into every township. Unfortunately they don’t list the deaths that way, like Hunterdon does.  And you still have to hit the state dashboard if you want the nursing home specific LTC numbers which have been God awful in Warren.

I think “self reported recovery” data is better than my 6 week approximation algorithm, or at least as good and rather more factual than hypothetical. I wish this were done everywhere. Because active public is the only number we need to know.

Cumulative cases for some area (with or without probables) minus “restricted access” cases (LTC and inmates) minus deaths not in LTC minus recovered. Adjust recovered by the fraction of cumulative cases not in LTC

Or more simply: Cumulative cases minus deaths minus recoveries. This works if you don’t have lots of nursing homes or prisons.

In Hunterdon today, that’s about 55 people; active public cases.
In Warren today, that’s about 74 people; active public cases.

So 129 active public cases from two county combined population of 225,000 people, in almost exactly 800 square miles. 1 per 1,744 folks you might run across in a store. A hair over 2 per square mile. Assuming they aren’t self isolating at all.

Yeah, it’s nearly over, all over over here.

But if you knew that, you might not wear your mask in public or practice excessive social distancing, or hide in your basement in terror. Now be a good sheep and behave.


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Posted by Drew458   United States  on 07/09/2020 at 12:24 PM   
Filed Under: • Governmentpandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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calendar   Tuesday - July 07, 2020

The Pause That Kills

Well DUH. Lockdown and public fear is killing retail.

NEW JERSEY — Retailers were expecting a difficult year even before the coronavirus outbreak. But with COVID-19 shutting malls and stores for months, coupled with record unemployment, the results have been even more devastating than anticipated in New Jersey.

Among the national chains that have recently filed for bankruptcy are J.Crew, Neiman Marcus, Modell’s Sporting Goods, Pier 1, GNC, Chuck E. Cheese, Roots USA, True Religion, and Bluestem Brands. Sears, Kmart, JoAnn Stores and David’s Bridal reportedly could be nearing bankruptcy.

The effect of the retail calamity is being felt across New Jersey, although J.C. Penney, which also filed for bankruptcy, says no stores in the Garden State are closing.

Gov. Phil Murphy also said he’s planning to hit “pause” on reopening New Jersey since the state has backslid on controlling the virus. Murphy said New Jersey’s coronavirus rate-of-transmission has hit its highest level in 10 weeks.

According to “Red” Murphy, this whole spike is the fault of crowds in 2 bars at the beach, and 1 crowd at a bar in the northern part of the state. And people from Florida and Texas. Not a single word about any of the thousands of young fools who were out protesting and rioting a couple weeks ago, and we’ve heard a billion times how this virus takes a week or three to show itself once you’re infected.

And frankly, the “expecting a difficult year” is probably nonsense. Retailers had their greatest holiday sales ever this past December, and the opening of a new super mall etc was supposed to draw in high numbers of shoppers. Not to mention that any brick and mortar store with any brains also has an online outlet, and probably a fulfillment contract with Amazon. So get real. Like farmers, retailers are always crying poverty and disaster, until they suddenly admit they’re drowning in cash at the end of the year.



And here’s a bit about our “Janus”, our two faced governor who speaks out of both sides of his face with a forked tongue. He says Yes and No at the same time, all the time. Very aggravating.

NEW JERSEY — Gov. Phil Murphy said New Jersey has backslid now that the coronavirus rate of transmission has hit its highest level in 10 weeks. He made the statement Monday as he announced 216 new cases and 20 more deaths, which remain among the lowest daily numbers in the nation. [ So even “really really good” isn’t good enough. Perfection or else. What a maroon. ]

The update comes as the number of cases has risen to 173,611, and 13,373 confirmed deaths have been reported. [ well over 11,000 of those deaths happened during the peak of the epidemic ]

Murphy also said he’s planning to hit “pause” on reopening more parts of New Jersey since the state has backslid on controlling the virus.

Murphy said the rate of transmission exceeded 1.0 for the first time in 10 weeks, almost 20 percent higher than last week. The current rate is 1.03.

...

Murphy said there were several outbreaks in New Jersey over the past week, and South Jersey communities and Jersey Shore towns have shown some of the highest increases over the past month. Read more: New List Shows Town-By-Town NJ Coronavirus Cases, Deaths, Spikes

Some bars in Jersey Shore towns have been violating social distancing rules, and they’ve been caught on video. Murphy noted those incidents to re-emphasize his point that everybody should wear a mask, especially indoors, if they are not around immediate family.

Murphy said an outbreak in Hoboken and one caused by a wedding in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, also led to outbreaks in North Jersey.

...

Murphy said he doesn’t believe that reopening New Jersey’s economy has had much to do with the rise in the transmission rate. He said it points more to individual flare-ups, much of it caused by out-of-state travelers from “hot spots” such as Florida.

Murphy also said that reopening the state’s beaches and the economy probably didn’t contribute much to the rate-of-transmission increase. He said the problem is “an indoor reality,” and that the disease spreads more easily when people are inside.

Murphy said he would like to reopen indoor dining and he has “nothing but sympathy for the small-business community.” He made another plea for the federal government to provide direct cash assistance to those businesses.

There you go. Blame the out-of-staters. Because the whole country wants to come here. As if. Meanwhile businesses can go squat. Where does this commie idiot think the tax money is going to come from?

At least our governor makes sure all his minions dance to the same tune. Here’s our state health commissioner, who really hasn’t been heard from much at all up to this point:

Health Commissioner Judy Persichilli announced “another concerning pattern” during a coronavirus update on Tuesday: an increase in cases among young people.

In April, individuals between 18 and 29 years old made up 12 percent of COVID-19 cases in the state. Now, in June, that number has risen to make up 22 percent of cases. [ June, fin. It’s now July. Whaddya got for July? This is “news” right, not “olds”. ]

More than 640 residents between the ages of 18 and 29 have been hospitalized due to complications from this virus, Persichilli said. There have been more than 50 deaths among the age group.

“People of any age can get severe illness from COVID-19,” the health commissioner said.
...
The update was also preceded by a weekend of non-socially distant gatherings across the state, including large crowds at bars in Belmar to Morristown that have recently reopened. [ a weekend? This damn virus takes at least a week to incubate. ]
...
Crowding at bars may be contributing to this trend, and the governor said he will take action against establishments that are not following social distancing guidelines.

“While we know that some of this increase can be attributed to an increase in access to testing, we are still concerned about this trend,” said Persichilli. “We are especially concerned after gatherings we saw over the weekend at the Jersey Shore, and another bar in Northern New Jersey.

“Individuals were packed together at these locations, which raises the risk of spreading COVID-19 to one another, and then onto a wider community.”

Right. THREE bars in the entire state had crowds of young people 4 days ago. That explains the uptick perfectly. And if it doesn’t, we can also blame visitors from NYC and Philly. Oh, and the 22,000 tests we’re doing every single day.


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Posted by Drew458   United States  on 07/07/2020 at 08:52 AM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseasesPandemic Pandemonium •  
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calendar   Monday - July 06, 2020

Monday Morning COVID BS

Sorry. I’m sick to death of it too.

NJ News: Things Are Much Better But They Could Get Worse!!!

NEW JERSEY – New projections and data suggest New Jersey is on the right course after nearly a month of reopenings that have impacted the coronavirus outbreak. But Gov. Phil Murphy said there are signs that “we run the risk of this thing coming back at us” if New Jersey doesn’t remain cautious.

Indeed, there are signs that the rate of transmission is still too high in New Jersey’s more rural counties, particularly in South Jersey. And a study from researchers and epidemiologists says New Jersey is no longer on track to contain the coronavirus as infection numbers surge to record new highs across the country.

According to the administration’s models:

Hospitalizations were expected to drop 22 percent from July 1 through 7.
Active infections were expected to drop 22 percent to 2,174 from July 1 through 7. The July 7 number would be a 53 percent drop from June 19th.
ICU patients were expected to drop from 170 to 131 on July 7th.

The Murphy administration also noted that numbers have declined since the reopenings started more than a month ago.

On June 4th, 1,982 people were hospitalized. On Sunday, the number was 917.
On June 4 th, 537 people were in critical or intensive care. On Sunday, the number was 210.
On May 17th, when the reopenings started, Murphy announced that New Jersey had 1,272 new cases. On Sunday, the number was 303.

But, based on the models and other factors, there are some concerning signs that perhaps contributed to Murphy’s decision to suspend the reopening of indoor dining.

Here are some factors that may cause concern:

The state’s case rate is actually running ahead of its recent projections. The Murphy administration’s models predicted that New Jersey would have 170,842 total cases by Tuesday; it had 171,667.


Yes, the lead factor for “concern” is that the real world number is less that 1/2% higher than the latest projection. Oh noes, reality! Run, hide, shelter in place!!

Meanwhile, another 80,000 people have been tested here in NJ since my last screed on this topic. Well, given the PCR swab test. No numbers for the antibody test, and 1,270 for the saliva test in our local 2 county pilot testing project. This adds up to 17.25% of the population of the entire state.

This is the very first news article I’ve seen anywhere that mentions the number of active cases. Obviously this number is known, and known in every county in the nation. Yet it is not a stat the public needs to see I guess. Um, wrong! It’s the only stat that matters.

Hunterdon County is still not fully opened. Masks must be worn to go into any business, customers limited to 25% of capacity, haircuts, manicures, massages, by appointment only, movie theaters still not open, no eat in dining, etc.

A recent report by a leftwing, Silicon Valley/Soros funded “watchdog” group called COVID Action Now ( IMO anything with “action” and/or “now” in it’s name is guaranteed to be a leftist commie rag ) has declared that my county is not “controlling” the virus, and that our spreading rate, the infamous R value, is greater than 1.0. Danger Will Robinson, Danger!!!  This is an obvious farm cart full of horse apples.


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Hunterdon County NJ confirmed COVID-19 cases

There are 26 named areas in my county. 21 of them have been flatlined since the 2nd week in April, 4 others since the 3rd week in May. Only 1 shows some slow growth of significance (42 in 6 weeks).

Yeah, we’re not controlling it in my county, and the growth rate is excessive. What a crock.



Each color is one of our townships or boroughs. The 3 at the top are the ones with the prisons and the LTC centers. Removing those cases to get an “adjusted public” case count drops those 3, top to bottom, to 29, 0, and 112, respectively. That 112 belongs to Raritan Township, which is the largest township in the county and has the largest population. 


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Posted by Drew458   United States  on 07/06/2020 at 07:39 AM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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calendar   Thursday - July 02, 2020

The MERV Of Them!

Next Reopening Stumbling Block Will Be Indoor Air Quality

ONE instance in China where an air conditioner is suspected of spreading COVID by blowing droplets around. One. The thesis was not tested or replicated in a lab, but it seems to make a bit of sense. So let the panic and the kneejerk and the political weaponization ensue. Cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of Dem. We must all live in a sanitized bubble from now on, or else we’ll die. Riiight.




Cuomo says malls may need to improve air filtration before they can open

ALBANY — Gov. Andrew Cuomo contended Friday that ventilation systems in malls and theaters could spread the coronavirus, an assertion immediately disputed by the largest operator of shopping plazas in upstate New York.

Pyramid Management Group, in a statement responding to Cuomo, said, “There is no documented link between HVAC systems and the spread of COVID-19 in malls.”
...
Cuomo said the state is trying to determine if there are any ventilation filters on the market that can trap the coronavirus.
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Other venues with HVAC systems that have remained open or have reopened at reduced capacity include office buildings, subway stations and retail stores outside of malls. Schools were closed in March, though the reason given was concern over the density of people in classrooms, not ventilation issues.

Pyramid said it has been working with HVAC technicians to increase fresh air flow into the buildings it manages and install new filters. The company said it has complied with all guidance offered by the Centers for Disease Control, a federal agency, as well as by the state government led by Cuomo.

“This week, we have spoken with dozens of HVAC companies who have shared that Pyramid has done considerably more than other businesses that they represent who are open,” Pyramid said.
...
Cuomo said the state Department of Health, led by Dr. Howard Zucker, is overseeing the effort to determine if there is a filtration system available to remove the virus from air circulation.

As for gyms, Cuomo said he is concerned that people could exhale the virus into the air while vigorously exercising.


This sort of reminds me of the old Beatles song Taxman; government controlling every aspect of your life right down to the air you breathe, through taxation and regulation.
If you drive a car, I’ll tax the street
If you try to sit, I’ll tax your seat
If you get too cold, I’ll tax the heat
If you take a walk, I’ll tax your feet


Pushed just a tiny bit further, this is a Catch-22 hurdle put in the way of businesses. Not only would an effective HVAC mitigation be very expensive to install and maintain, not one of them exists that is Officially Approved to capture or kill this specific virus. That seal of approval will take years and cost millions. And what are businesses and offices to do in the meantime?


~~~


I saw this coming a couple months ago and posted about it. While dining and working in the great outdoors is probably the best and least expensive solution, the whole point of civilization is to get as far away from nature as possible. Away from the wind and rain and bugs and dirt and cold. That’s what indoors is all about.

Yes, there are possible solutions. HEPA filters are kind of like the N95 masks of the HVAC world. They do a pretty good job, but they cost more and usually require a stronger ventilating system. It takes stronger fans to pull the same amount of air through a tighter filter. How do you know it’s a “good” filter? That’s where MERV comes in. MERV stands for minimum efficiency reporting value and is a metric for filtration effectiveness. A MERV rating below 13 isn’t going to do the anti-viral job. HEPA filters are generally in the MERV 17 - 20 range.

There are also air washing systems to which disinfectants could be added. Humidity control plays a significant role here. Electrostatic precipitation filters may also be effective, and adding a significant amount of UV-C lights inside the HVAC system may kill enough germs and viruses to make a difference. Airflow itself is a factor; a vertical air path, bottom to top, will strongly mitigate lateral droplet movement, the issue that all this social distancing and mask wearing is all about. But almost no buildings are designed for vertical air movement. You’d be living on a fan screen with a ceiling made of vacuum cleaners, and a high volume of airflow would have Marilyn Monroe effects.

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results of vertical air channels

OTOH, you’d smell the pleasing aromas of your food more easily, although it would get cold quickly. Which could encourage you to eat fast and get out, which limits your virus exposure and gives the restaurants a higher turnover rate (assuming more customers are in the queue). Win win? Or suck suck?

Most recently, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced that all large malls in New York will have to install “air filtration systems that can filter out the COVID virus” before reopening.

This requirement comes as infectious disease experts start more aggressively studying the ways in which the virus can spread through inhaling small particles that could hang around in the air for hours—otherwise known as aerosolized particles.
...
This risk of infection through these small particles is especially high in small enclosed spaces like offices, and restaurants, where the air is not being circulated as often and many people are spending prolonged, direct contact with one another. Experts agree that efficient ventilation may likely be an important part in safely resuming indoor activities.

“Obviously cleaning surfaces is still important but cleaning the air that recirculates through buildings is now a huge focus,” according to Nancy McClellan, an industrial hygiene specialist.

Effective ventilation can clean the air through recirculation while filtering out small, potentially infectious particles. Experts are also evaluating special technologies that can disinfect incoming viral particles, like UV light.
...
The performance of a filter is characterized by its Minimum Efficiency Reporting Values, otherwise known as MERV rating. On the MERV rating scale, HEPA filters are rated anywhere between 17-19.

“The higher the MERV rating the more efficient and effective that filter is,” said Krause.
...
Most HVACs found in homes or small workplaces, however, cannot accommodate these fine HEPA filters, since they do not have motors that can produce a strong enough pressure to pull air and push it through a HEPA filter. Krause said some HVACs may be able to
accommodate a filter with a MERV rating of up to 13 but that still would not achieve the necessary number of air changes per hour that would effectively reduce the viral particles in the air.

Health experts agree that indoor spaces are higher risk than outdoor spaces when it comes to the virus’ spread, which is another reason New Jersey has paused indoor dining, Murphy said. Health experts specifically warn that dining indoors, where there’s less air flow, can be a higher risk since people can’t wear face coverings when they eat.

“We know that this virus moves differently indoors than out, making it even more deadly. We have seen spikes in other states driven in part by the return of patrons to indoor dining establishments where they are seated and without face coverings for significant periods of time,” [ NJ Governor ] Murphy said.

More info on air filtration can be found here.

All of this is ramped up even further by the risk-free utopian world people have come to expect over the past couple of decades. They are just going to have to accept some reality. Indoor businesses will do what they can, but the cost has to be taken into consideration. Or you can go live outside in the dirt, roasting in the summer, freezing in the winter, sharing your food with every insect and critter that comes along. In other words, go back to being a caveman. Which would make the greenies very happy, so no thanks.


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Posted by Drew458   United States  on 07/02/2020 at 08:05 AM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseasesThe New Normal •  
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calendar   Tuesday - June 30, 2020

Feeling Positive That I Tested Negative, Woo Hoo!!

Yee ha, my PCR test results are in, finally. And I’ve got nothing. Which is what I expected, but if I could take an antibody test I’d do that too. Just to see. But those are hard to find in NJ, and they aren’t free AFAIK.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Result — Not Detected
Your test was negative for COVID-19, meaning that the virus was not present in the sample you provided. However, you may be infected but there’s not enough virus in your body to be detected yet. So if you’ve been exposed to COVID-19 or have other reasons to believe you are still at risk, avoid contact with anyone in your home or in public and consider retesting. You can talk with your healthcare provider about your test results. Laboratory test results should always be considered in the context of clinical observations. We suggest you continue to follow your federal, state, and local government guidance.

I’ve read in a couple places that this test is hyper-sensitive, so if it found nothing, then I’m pretty certain I’ve got nothing. 


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Posted by Drew458   United States  on 06/30/2020 at 08:13 AM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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calendar   Monday - June 29, 2020

Must have run out of cholorquine

COVID: India reports nearly 20,000 cases a day

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I don’t think lockdown or social distancing will work very well here




Don’t forget that India has 1.5 billion people living in India. Not to mention the half billion living everywhere else around the world.

• Over the past week alone, the South Asian nation has seen a jump of nearly 100,000 cases according to the health ministry
• With 548,318 confirmed infections, it is now the world’s fourth-worst affected country after the US, Brazil and Russia

India reported its largest daily jump in coronavirus infections of nearly 20,000 on Monday as several states reimposed partial or full lockdowns to stem the spread of the virus.
Over the past week alone, India has seen a jump of nearly 100,000 cases according to the health ministry. In all, the country has confirmed 548,318 cases, making it the world’s fourth-worst affected country after the United States, Brazil and Russia. India’s death toll has reached 16,475.

The capital district of the northeastern state of Assam on the Bangladesh border has reimposed a full lockdown until July 12 following a spike in cases. Another border state, West Bengal, has extended its lockdown until July 31.

However, in India’s worst-affected states – Maharashtra, which includes the financial capital, Mumbai, and Delhi, home to the capital, New Delhi – most lockdown restrictions have been eased, with restaurants, shopping malls and parks reopened, and public buses and shared-ride services back on the roads.

A total of 231,095 people were tested for Covid-19 on Saturday, the Indian Council of Medical Research said – more than double the tests carried out daily a month ago.

Delhi, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh governments announced they would further scale up testing over the coming weeks.

Indian cities have emerged as major coronavirus hotspots, with Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai topping the list.

Maharashtra’s chief minister Uddhav Thackeray announced on Sunday that a partial lockdown would continue but be gradually eased to enable more economic activity.

Barber shops and salons in the state started opening Sunday with various safety measures in place.

Residents have been requested to keep within a 1.2-mile radius of their homes, a Mumbai police spokesman said. Movement outside this radius is allowed only for commuters and in the case of medical emergencies.

Cases have also spiked in Bangalore over the past few days. No activities except essential services and supplies would be allowed on Sundays from July 5, the government announced in new directives.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said his country must focus on bolstering the economy as it exits lockdowns, even as the number of coronavirus cases still keep on climbing.

The pandemic has exposed wide inequalities in India, with public hospitals being overwhelmed by virus cases while the rich get expert treatment in private hospitals.


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Posted by Drew458   United States  on 06/29/2020 at 12:31 PM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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Plenty Yuan Made Selling Traditional Chinese Medicine For COVID

I see saffron, star anise, mushrooms, black pepper, cinnamon, cloves, cardamom, shredded garlic and a couple other seed or fruit things. Looks like a nice spice mix for some curry. If the mix is 1800 years old, it can’t exactly be a secret formula, can it?

“Highly Effective” Chinese Traditional Medicine Makes Shamans A Fortune

image

Spice mix fights COVID and wins? Heard about this a couple months ago; they were going to sell tons of it to Africa and make billions.

Question is, does it actually work? Do we have “official” studies, or is this “merely anecdotal”? Or total BS?

Chinese medicine makers have reaped stunning results in the first quarter.

One of China’s treatments for Covid-19 is a controversial traditional Chinese medicine inspired by a medical textbook written 1,800 years ago. The huge popularity of the drug – the Lianhua Qingwen capsule – has produced massive fortunes for the company behind it, as well as its shareholders.

Beyond the increased sales from the coronavirus pandemic, however, traditional remedy makers still face an uphill battle to prove their medical efficacy, maintain their domestic market share and win recognition overseas.

“Sales income from the Lianhua Qingwen capsule almost doubled in the first quarter of this year,” said Wu Xiangjun, general manager of Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical, which produces the drug, in a written exchange with the South China Morning Post. “We continue to actively push for the product to be registered and sold overseas.”

The capsule, developed in 2003 to treat severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), extracts the essence of 13 herbs based on prescriptions that date back to classic medical texts written during the Han dynasty (206BC–220AD).

In February, it became part of China’s national standard therapy for Covid-19 patients, along with two other traditional Chinese medicine formulas. There is currently no known cure for the disease.

Chinese embassies also included it in a care package sent to Chinese students overseas alongside masks and disinfecting wipes. The drug is now sold for as much as £19 (US$24) on e-commerce site eBay in the UK for a box that is priced at about 25 yuan (US$4) in China.

Thanks in part to officials’ promotion and support, the pandemic has cemented the important role of traditional Chinese medicine in the country’s health care system, despite intense controversies over its effectiveness. It accounts for 18 per cent to 30 per cent of China’s 2 trillion yuan (US$283 billion) drug market, according to various estimates.



~~~~

Related:

[ June 1 ] Customs officers seized tens of thousands of capsules of a Chinese medication falsely advertised as a treatment for COVID-19.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers seized three parcels of Lianhua Qingwen Jiaonang on Tuesday at the International Mail Facility at Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport. Each box contained 9,600 capsules for a total of 28,800 capsules and a total domestic value of $28,797, according to a news release. All of the shipments originated from China.

The medication is known to have been used to treat some COVID-19 patients in China and other countries. But its effectiveness is unknown and it remains an unapproved medicine for use in the United States.

So if it hasn’t been tested or trialed, it’s kind of wrong to say it’s falsely labeled. “Unapproved” might be a better descriptor. But right now it can’t be packaged as a medicine and distributed in the USA. Maybe they should label the pills “seasoning for one garden salad”?



~~~~

Speaking of untested and unapproved ...

Randomized controlled trials(RCTs) regarding Lianhua Qingwen Capsules for treatment of viral influenza were searched in the CNKI, WanFang, VIP, SinoMed and PubMed. The quality of papers selected based on the inclusion criteria were assessed according to the Cochrane collaboration method and Meta-analysis was performed by using RevMan 5.3 software. A total of 8 articles were included, with a total sample size of 955 cases, including 478 cases in the treatment group, and 477 cases in the control group. In terms of the therapeutic effect, Lianhua Qingwen Capsules group was superior to the control group, ...  In terms of adverse reactions, the control group was superior to Lianhua Qingwen Capsules, ... Lianhua Qingwen Capsules has a better therapeutic effect on viral influenza, but the incidence of adverse reactions is high, and its safety must be taken seriously. Given the small number of documents included and the low quality, the efficacy and safety of Lianhua Qingwen Capsules shall be confirmed by more high-quality clinical studies.

But they keep telling us that SARS COV-2 is not the flu, and nothing like the flu! So why treat it as if it was the flu?



~~~~

Meanwhile, 7 weeks ago over in Singapore:

Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603.SZ) announced that it has obtained the product listing approval issued by the Health Sciences Authority (HSA) of Singapore which grants Lianhua Qingwen Capsule the initial sale authorization in the country. The approval certifies and registers Lianhua Qingwen - a traditional Chinese medicine commonly used for the prevention and treatment of viral influenza - under the category of Chinese Proprietary Medicines (CPM).

Developed under the guidance of collateral disease theory, the medicine is listed as the recommended medicine for the treatment of cold and influenza by China’s National Health Commission and National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine. Composed of 13 Chinese herbs, the TCM has been found in the clinical research that it is effective in alleviating the influenza-induced symptoms like fever, cough and fugue.

Lianhua Qingwen also plays a pivotal role in the prevention and control of COVID-19 in China. Lianhua Qingwen was shown in a clinical trial to improve the recovery rate of patients infected with COVID-19. The latest research by State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University has revealed that Lianhua Qingwen significantly inhibited the SARS-COV-2 replication, affected virus morphology and reduced the virus load in the infected cells in vitro.



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China TCM seems to have at least SIX herbal mixes that seem to help”

Traditional Chinese medicine has been playing a critical role in the prevention, treatment and rehabilitation of novel coronavirus pneumonia. Official figures showed that 91.6 percent of the patients in Hubei province, and 92.4 percent of patients nationwide have been treated with TCM.

Three formulas and three medicines have proved to be effective in treating the infection, according to the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine. Here is a list of them.

Remember when Hubei Provence was on the verge of annihilation one week, and seemingly perfectly cured the next? IIRC they claimed TCM as the reason, and the West ignored that. Barbaric folk remedies. Shamanism. Maybe somebody in the West out to do a study or three ...


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Posted by Drew458   United States  on 06/29/2020 at 11:56 AM   
Filed Under: • CHINA in the newspandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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O.F.F’s.S. Not Confidence Inspiring.

So I’m still waiting for my COVID test results. I have no doubt that I do not have the virus, but I’d really be more comfortable knowing this officially before I do major social interaction, including a possibly “illegal” visit across state lines to visit my mother, who is in the high risk category.

Quest Diagnostic is running the tests around my part of NJ, and they sort of promise results in 2 - 3 days. It’s been 5 days now. NJ is running more than 20,000 COVID tests a day for more than a month now, so you’d think they have it nailed down and squared away at this point.

Test results took forever to come back way way back in the beginning of this thing; wife’s co-worker was tested March 10 and didn’t get results until March 21, which caused us to self isolate for a week and a half before this whole foo hit the shan. We even had to stay far away from people at her sister’s wedding, wearing our masks and conversationally yelling halfway across the backyard to talk with people.

QD sent me an email just now, “your test results are in”. With only minor trepidation I followed the link, logged on, and got my test results.

GOOD NEWS EVERYONE!! Apparently I was tested for Lyme disease on July 19 of last year, and I DON’T HAVE IT. Woo hoo!!!

Um, hey dimwits ... come on already.


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Posted by Drew458   United States  on 06/29/2020 at 11:38 AM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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calendar   Friday - June 26, 2020

help wanted: Karen /Juanita to be annoying pool slave

Our condo park is trying sooo hard to get the pool open this season. It used to open Memorial Day weekend. We used to hire some high school kids with their newly minted lifeguard certificates. All that has changed. Becasue COVID.

Now nobody wants to be a lifeguard, the Red Cross is way behind with the training, and now the glorious State has decreed that there must be a paid gatekeeper and enforcer of the rules . Oh, and you get to muck out the bathrooms several times a day too.

This showed up in my email today ...

Hi All,

One of the requirements set by the State in order to open a pool is that there must be a designated “Ambassador” who will be responsible for enforcing COVID-19 protocols, and that an Ambassador must be on-site at the pool for the entire time the pool would be open. The pool management company is unable to provide this Ambassador, and the Ambassador cannot be a volunteer. Therefore, any Ambassador would need to be hired by the Association to fulfill this requirement. Attached please find a job description for this position. Please feel free to share this with anyone you feel might be interested.We would need a minimum of 2-3 persons to fulfill this requirement.

Another challenge is the ability to find lifeguards, and to complete the proper training and certification that is required for the lifeguards - the Red Cross is still limiting the certification classes, and so it is taking longer for training to be completed. These certification classes were not able to begin until mid-June due to the prior stay at home orders. Additionally, many people who would be/have been lifeguards, are no longer comfortable doing so. The pool management company is attempting to complete the training and assign guards, but at this time we do not have a definitive date for this.

Swimming Pool Ambassador 2020 Pool Season

We are looking for a detail-oriented, responsible person to serve as an Ambassador for our private community swimming pool.  Candidates must be able to communicate effectively in English.

The Ambassador is tasked with keeping the entire pool area and bathrooms in compliance with all COVID-19 regulations and protocols.

Duties will include, but are not limited to:

• COVID-19 awareness, cleaning and sanitizing, to perform assigned duties in a manner that promotes the safety of attendees and staff
• Monitor entry points to avoid congregating; stagger access as needed
• Maintain capacity limit to 30 persons and monitor sharing of personal property
• Maintain records of staff screening
• Monitor and encourage social distancing of bathers on the pool deck
• Serve as a COVID contact person, maintaining log book of pool attendees to coordinate potential tracing efforts
Contact local law enforcement in the event of non-compliance of Executive Order No. 153
• Maintain adequate supply of required sanitizing products& PPE
• Fulfill outreach plan including communication and signage regarding restrictions, expectations, hygiene

Candidates must be available weekdays, weekends and holidays through September7. Ideal candidates must be punctual and reliable.
Candidates must complete Competency-Based Training for infection prevention & control, and provide certification of completion.
Pay is bi-weekly, $13.50/hour.If interested, kindly email or fax letter of interest along with resume to the management office as noted above.Contact me with any questions.



So the job is to be a Karen, wagging your finger at all your neighbors and making sure they don’t have any fun. And call the cops on them if they do anything naughty ... you know, act like normal people. Make yourself the instant enemy of all your neighbors!

And you also get to be a Juanita, cleaning everything all the time, including the bathrooms. Probably after every use.

And you have to wear the kit, sitting out in the sun in mask, gloves, plastic face shield, and maybe even a bunny suit, while everyone else goes for a swim.

Hours unspecified, but they want you whenever they want you any day of the week and you’d better be on time.

Pay is $13.50/hr. And they want a resume.

Good frickin luck. You’re not even going to find a kid to be a lifeguard.


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Posted by Drew458   United States  on 06/26/2020 at 10:33 PM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseasesThe New Normal •  
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calendar   Wednesday - June 24, 2020

So Now I Nose

I Survived The COVID PCR Test

I had the nasal swab COVID test and it wasn’t that bad. A bit uncomfortable. Almost the whole process is done in pantomine, with the attendees holding up flip chart signs you read through your car window.

Make sure to print out your appointment confirmation email, bring your cell phone, and have your ID ready. And duh, have your mask on. No mask, and they tell you to leave.





~~~~



image

Take this and stick it all the way up your nose. Twice.



So I went down to Walmart in Flemington for my test this morning. They’ve got it set up like a little factory. Signs at the entrance to the parking lot direct you around back, over to the far corner of the lot demarcated with those portable metal fence barriers that look like big bicycle racks. Several patio gazebos are set up to provide shade for the workers.

Drive around the maze following the arrows and get to the check in point. A person in one of those “hazmat” bunny suits is there, mask, gloves, face shield, with a clipboard and two sets of flip charts. Read and respond. English? Thumbs up or down. Espanol? Si or no. “Keep your windows rolled up” reads the first one. Nod. “hold your confirmation email to the window”. Nod. She reads it, marks her papers. “Follow the arrows to the next station”. Ok. Get checked again 50 yards down the path. Yup, it’s still me. “Slightly unroll your window to receive the packet”. I do. It gets delivered at the end of one of those kitchen grabber extension gizmos that grandma uses for the high shelves. “Read and follow the instructions on the bag. Do not open the bag until instructed to do so.” Sure, fine.

Most of the time I was just sitting in line, waiting for the drivers ahead of me to be processed. So I have plenty of time to look at my little bag of stuff. It’s got a paper telling me that I’ll be notified by email when my results are in, and the URL for the online results. There’s a paper tissue, a capped little plastic sample test tube with some liquid in it, and a sealed FLOQswab for me to impale my sinuses with at the appropriate moment. The thing looks like a Q-tip mated with a Samurai sword. Oh joy.

image

The depth guard, what I instantly think of as a tsuba, the hilt on a katana, is rather a long distance back from the swab tip. Must be my imagination, as the whole thing isn’t even 6” long and the swab tip is as thin as the point on a felt tip pen. But that’s my nose it’s going in, so it looks huge and rather intimidating. Remember that scene from Total Recall where Ahnold has to pull the tracking beacon out of his nose? Yeah. “When you hear the crunch you’re there.” What have I got myself into now?

So I putt-putt to the next station, and Freddy Flip Chart holds up a sign with a phone number on it. With a picture of a cell phone, in case I’m not too bright. So I call. The number is in Arizona, but I realize I’m talking to the guy a foot outside my window, with his Bluetooth thing on his ear. I’m talking to him through my car, which has that built in phone connectivity thing. I almost never use it. I never call while driving, but sometimes I get a text, and it will read it to me. The wonders of modern technology.

So he tells me what to do, with diagrams for the easily confused. Open the swab package from this end. Remove the swab by the handle. Take off your mask, tip your head back, and insert the swab into your right nostril until the guard touches your nostrils. I do. Slowly. EEEERRrrG. Only slightly painful, but really weird feeling. I’m not in the habit of sticking things up my nose, and this thing is going way the heck in there. But once it’s in, I don’t even feel it. It stays in for 15 seconds, but I don’t have to rotate it around or anything. Now remove the swab. OMG, this is irritating and I have to sneeze. Now put the swab up your left nostril until the guard touches your nostril. Ok, that side was easier. I guess my sinuses are more open or larger on the left. Wait until he tells me to remove it, now pull it out. I know what to expect, so this time it doesn’t feel so freaky.

Now comes the dexterity part. While holding the swab by the handle with the tip not touching anything, remove the test tube from the kit bag. Holding it cap up with a couple fingers, unscrew and remove the cap. The cap comes off with just half a turn, so that’s easy. Insert the swab into the test tube as far as it goes. Uh huh, done. Now bend the handle around until it breaks. Not quite sure of that, but I bend the handle end once, twice, and it snaps off, leaving the business end in the tube. Screw the cap on. Yup. Put the tube in the bag and close the Ziploc seal. Got it.

Then he steps back, gets a metal cart on wheels with an Igloo chest on the top, opens it and rolls it up to my window, while he’s quite far away at the other end of the cart. Put my envelope in the ice chest. And that’s it. Thank you have a nice day.

Once the swab was out of my sinuses, my nose only felt weird for a few seconds. By the time I followed the arrows out of the parking lot, I wasn’t feeling anything at all.

The self-administered test is nothing to be afraid of. A few seconds of minor discomfort and it’s over. The whole process took 12 minutes, from showing up to driving away.  And it was free.

Damn, I should have bought stock in Quest Diagnostics when this pandemic started. I bet they’re making a killing right now.


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Posted by Drew458   United States  on 06/24/2020 at 08:01 AM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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calendar   Monday - June 22, 2020

the battered barber

Shave And A Haircut, Screw This

NJ has another Big Re-Opening today. woo woo. You can actually go to the barber and get a haircut, but the list of rules is insane. Also, our Governor is pushing anybody who has been anywhere to get a COVID test.

For getting a haircut, barbers and hair salons must:

•   Install physical barriers, if feasible, to minimize client contact with staff in the reception area.

•   Utilize floor markers (such as signs or tape) to designate 6-foot distances in common areas of the premises, including the reception and/or waiting area, client service stations, bathrooms, and employee break rooms.

•   Seating in the reception and/or waiting area shall be rearranged or removed to ensure that people are seated at least 6 feet apart.

•   Reconfigure the premises to ensure that staff-client pairs maintain at least 6 feet distance between any other staff-client pairs at all times, unless separated in private closed-rooms or by physical barriers.

•   Utilize pre-payment or remote, contactless payment options, when possible.

•   If the exchange of cash is unavoidable, cash should be placed on the counter and not exchanged hand-to-hand.

•   Staff accepting cash shall wipe the counter between each transaction and wash their hands with soap or utilize hand sanitizer after each transaction.

•   Establish an isolated area for delivery of supplies and materials.

•   Clean all surfaces at the premises with hot soapy water or cleaning wipes prior to reopening and before disinfecting.

•   Hard non-porous surfaces, such as glass, metal, and plastic, as well as all tools should be disinfected even if they were cleaned before the premises was closed.

•   Remove items that are intended to be used by multiple people, such as magazines/books/newspapers or other publications.

•   Install hand sanitizers for use by clients and staff.

•   Decline to provide services to any clients without a pre-scheduled appointment that has been arranged by telephone, text messaging, or online.

•   No walk-ins shall be permitted.

•   Screen no more than 24 hours prior to the appointment all clients scheduled for appointments.

•   The screening must be done via a telephonic or online consultation or questionnaire that includes the screening questions.

•   Clients are required to submit to a no-contact forehead temperature check.

•   Clients must wear, at a minimum, a cloth face covering at all times, except where doing so would inhibit the person’s health or the person is under 2 years of age.

•   Space appointments to allow adequate time for cleaning and disinfecting all nonporous surfaces.

•   Those with a temperature exceeding 100.4 degrees, along with anyone accompanying them, should be denied entry.

•   Stagger work hours of staff or adjust operating hours to limit the number of people on the premises at any given time, and accommodate social distancing.

•   Require all staff immediately prior to the initial re-entry after the reopening of the premises to respond to screening questions.

•   Require premises owners, managers, staff, clients, and anyone else in the premises to wear, at minimum, a cloth face covering at all times before, during, and after performing services.

•   Provide clients with, at minimum, cloth face coverings, if they arrive for an appointment without a face covering, or decline to provide services.

•   Direct staff to wear gloves when required to handle dirty linens or laundry.

•   Allow for break time for repeated hand washing between clients throughout the day.

•   Staff must maintain an appointment book with contact information regarding clients served, as well as a daily log of staff, and submit such information if requested to the Department of Health or the local board of health.

•   Notify the local health department immediately if it is suspected that any person who is known to have contracted COVID-19 was on the premises while COVID-19 positive, and cooperate with contact tracing efforts.

My barber is right down the street. He and his wife run the place. There’s one hair chair area for him, and one for her. The waiting area has 4 chairs and some magazines. I finally couldn’t take it any longer, and had my wife cut my hair 2 weeks ago.

( Remember magazines? That’s another thing you’ll probably never see again in any waiting room for anything anywhere. Because, eww, viral contact. So buh bye. )

If this is what barbershops have to go through, I can’t imagine what bowling alleys will be forced to put up with. It just doesn’t work. Or maybe our commie governor wants to put them out of business entirely.


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Posted by Drew458   United States  on 06/22/2020 at 11:24 AM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseasesThe New NormalPandemic Pandemonium •  
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calendar   Thursday - June 18, 2020

Moron the FDA HCQ EUA

When TDS bias becomes lethal ...

FDA EUA Statement Indirectly References Two Terribly Flawed Studies

image  image

Yeah, I know. I’m sick of going on about the global tidal wave of purposely inept trials and studies that show how hydroxychloroquine just ain’t no good for treating SARS-COV-2. But when these studies are so poorly done that they kill people, I have to speak up.

The FDA statement does not mention these studies by name, but merely notes who the authors are. As if we can’t figure out what studies they’re associated with. Like I said before, weasel wording, smoke and mirrors.

The first study, now redacted from the FDA’s statement the other day, was the one published in the UK medical journal The Lancet, which is about the most respected medical news stream in the world. That study was so poorly done that hundreds of doctors around the world immediately questioned the validity of it, and within a short time The Lancet retracted it. Turns out the study was done by some shell company called Surgisphere, which had a staff of “highly trained experts” that included a science fiction writer and a whore adult model / “event hostess”. The backlash against Surgisphere was so strong that the company is now out of business.

Remember Surgisphere? That was the name of the company that allegedly gathered data from hundreds of hospitals around the world and subsequently published a research paper claiming people treated with hydroxychloroquine were more likely to die than those who were not. That paper made international news at the time, but dozens of doctors questioned the credibility of its data. The paper was eventually retracted and, as of today, it appears Surgisphere is no more.

So the reference to the Lancet’s report was pulled by the FDA’s EUA statement as the prime evidence that HCQ doesn’t work. Oops.



The second study is the RECOVERY paper from Oxford University in the UK, which is part of the global Solidarity COVID research and trials effort. The RECOVERY study found that HCQ was not just useless but super dangerous, as the patients in the study were dropping like flies. Dying left and right.

Hydroxychloroquine does not treat coronavirus, according to the world’s biggest trial of the anti-malaria drug backed by US President Donald Trump.

Oxford University scientists pulled the controversial drug from the RECOVERY trial today after results showed it had no benefit on patients hospitalised with the virus.

A quarter of NHS patients given hydroxychloroquine died from Covid-19, compared to 23.5 per cent who were not prescribed the drug.

The scientists running the trial, which has recruited more than 1,500 patients from around 170 UK hospitals, said the results were ‘pretty compelling’, adding: ‘This isn’t a treatment that works.’

Professor Martin Landray, lead author of the study, added: ‘If you’re admitted to hospital with Covid – you, your mother or anyone else - hydroxychloroquine is not the right treatment. It doesn’t work.’

He called for doctors around the world to stop using the drug, which can cause a slew of nasty side effects including heart arrhythmias, headaches and vomiting.

But Professor Landray said the results do not necessarily mean the tablets cannot prevent people from catching Covid-19 in the first place, which several studies are still investigating. 

And here comes their OOPS scenario: the brain trust in charge of the study was giving the patients a nearly lethal dose of HCQ. Because some idiot confused hyroxychloroquine with hydroxyquinoline ( Iodoquinol ), which is a medicine used to treat dysentery. The dysentery medicine dosage is much larger - it’s a different drug entirely - and that amount of HCQ is more than enough to get you sent to the poison control centers if you’re in France. Any HCQ dose over 1800mg is potentially fatal , and they were giving patients 2400mg.

The UK “Recovery” trial was very similar to, but not part of, the international Solidarity conglomeration of clinical trials. The Recovery trial ended its HCQ arm on June 4, reporting no benefit. In-hospital mortality of the 1542 patients receiving hydroxychloroquine was 25.7%, or 396 deaths, about 10% higher than those receiving standard care, a non-significant difference.

The UK Recovery trial Study Protocol notes it is funded in part by the Wellcome Trust and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and by UK government agencies.  The Protocol provides the doses of hydroxychloroquine used, on page 22.  Twitter users began to notice a dosing problem, with hashtag #RecoveryGate. 

The HCQ dosing regimen used in the Recovery trial was 12 tablets during the first 24 hours (800mg initial dose, 800 mg six hours later, 400 mg 6 hrs later, 400 mg 6 hours later), then 400 mg every 12 hours for 9 more days.  This is 2.4 grams during the first 24 hours, and a cumulative dose of 9.2 grams over 10 days.

Even more disturbing than this, babies weighing 5 kg could be given a dose of 300 mg HCQ in the first 24 hours in the UK Recovery trial, which is 233 mg of the base (47 mg/kg), nearly 4 times the recommended maximum.  One to two pills (200-400 mg) is “potentially fatal in a toddler”.

...

Co-Principal Investigators of the Recovery trial, Drs. Peter Horby and Martin Landray, said they followed the WHO dosing. This is what their trial document says as well, on page 23. Landray also claimed in an interview with Paris Soir that the maximum allowed HCQ dose was “6 or 10 times” the dose used in Recovery, and that he was using the hydroxychloroquine dose that is used for amebic dysentery.  However, the accepted use for HCQ in amebiasis is only for a liver abscess and only then in pregnancy, when other drugs cannot be used.  That dose is 600 mg per day for 2 days, then 300 mg per day, considerably less than half the Recovery dose.  Co-Principal Investigator Peter Horby said that Paris Soir misinterpreted Landray’s comments, but Paris Soir said Landray had confirmed what he told them in an email prior to publication.  Landray is a very busy man, too busy, apparently, to look up the proper dose of a drug he gave to over 1500 subjects, who were randomized to the treatment and had no say in the matter.

We know that in Brazil, both a high CQ dose and a low CQ dose were trialed, and by April 17 the high dose arm was stopped prematurely due to an excess of deaths with 39% mortality (16 deaths in 41 subjects).  The high dose arm used 600 mg CQ twice daily for ten days, with cumulative dose of 12 grams. EKG changes typical of toxicity were seen in 25% of high dose subjects. The low dose trial continues in Brazil.

How is the drug hydroxychloroquine normally used?  For chronic daily use in systemic lupus erythematosus or rheumatoid arthritis, patients receive between 200 and 400 mg daily, or a maximum of 5 mg/kg.  In acute Q fever, 600 mg daily may be given at the start of treatment. For acute attacks of malaria, 1,500-2,000 mg may be given over 3 days.  Professor Didier Raoult’s group in Marseille used 600 mg daily for up to ten days in 1061 Covid-19 patients, and reported 8 deaths, a mortality rate of 0.75%, all over 74 years of age.  The mortality rate reported by Landray and Horby in the Recovery trial is 34 times higher.

...

The Recovery trial used 1.86 grams hydroxychloroquine base (equal to 2400 mg of hydroxychloroquine) in the first 24 hours for treatment of already very ill, hospitalized Covid-19 patients.  The Canadian and Norwegian Solidarity trials used 2,000 mg of HCQ, or 1.55 grams of HCQ base in the first 24 hours. Each trial gave patients a cumulative dose during the first 24 hours that, when given as a single dose, has been documented to be lethal. (The drug’s half-life is about a month, so the cumulative amount is important.)

The doses used in these trials are not recommended for therapy of any medical condition, which I confirmed with Goodman and Gilman’s Pharmacology textbook, the drug’s US label, and the online subscription medical encyclopedia UptoDate.

Excessive, dangerous HCQ dosing continues to be used in WHO’s Solidarity trials. These trials are not, in fact, testing the benefits of HCQ on Covid-19, but rather are testing whether patients survive toxic, non-therapeutic doses.

And what a non-surprise, QT elongation and arrhythmia reactions were plentiful in these patients ... patients who were already deathly ill, probably with other serious co-morbidities, and given extreme overdoses of the HCQ drug. But “oops, we misread the label”? That doesn’t wash.

Big Pharma and the TDS medical community are playing with your lives, to discredit our President, keep this pandemic going, and to buy time for some insanely expensive patented therapy to be created. Is it any wonder why nobody trusts them?

Somewhat related ... another cheap common drug might help with late stage patients. Expect it to become instant anathema if President Trump mentions it. This information comes from the same RECOVERY study. Can we trust it?

Dexamethasone, the familiar glucocorticoid, reduced deaths in hospitalized COVID-19 patients with severe disease by one-third compared to those receiving usual care, according to topline interim results from the RECOVERY trial released early Tuesday.

Deaths in the dexamethasone arm were reduced by one-third (RR 0.65, 95% CI 0.48-0.88, P=0.0003) among patients receiving mechanical ventilation, and by one-fifth (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.67-0.96, P=0.0021) among patients requiring oxygen versus patients receiving usual care, according to a statement from the study’s authors.

But dexamethasone showed no benefit among patients who did not require respiratory support (RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.86-1.75).
...
“Dexamethasone is the first drug to be shown to improve survival in COVID-19,” said RECOVERY trial chief investigator Peter Horby, MD, PhD, of University of Oxford, in the group’s statement. “The survival benefit is clear and large in those patients who are sick enough to require oxygen treatment, so dexamethasone should now become standard of care in these patients.”

Horby described dexamethasone as “inexpensive, on the shelf and can be used immediately to save lives worldwide.”

Sir Patrick Vallance, the U.K.’s chief scientific adviser, characterized the news as a “ground-breaking development” in the fight against COVID-19.

So if you’re already on the edge of death from COVID, in the hospital already, getting oxygen or even on a ventilator - late pulmonary phase - it appears that this steroid can help. Well that’s a good thing. But if you aren’t at that level of illness, it won’t do anything for you. Sad.



~~~~~



And finally, a clear news story about what the FDA statement actually means is out in the media ... assuming you go to the other side of the world and find that article in The Hindu

Doctors can still prescribe HCQ to patients, says U.S. Health Secretary

Doctors can still prescribe anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine to patients, U.S. Health Secretary Alex Azar said, hours after the FDA withdrew the emergency use authorisation of chloroquine and HCQ in the treatment of COVID-19 patients.

The US Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) decision came on Monday after it concluded that the anti-malarial drugs may not be effective to cure the virus infections and lead to greater risks than any potential benefits.

“At this point, hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and chloroquine are just like any other approved drug in the United States. They may be used in hospital, they may be used in out-patient, they may be used at home, all subject to a doctor’s prescription,” Mr. Azar said.

“In fact, the FDA’s removal of the Emergency Use Authorisation takes away what had been a significant misunderstanding by many that had made people think that somehow it could only be used in a hospital setting, and we’ve tried to make that clear throughout,” he said in response to a question.
...
“If a doctor wishes to prescribe it, working with a patient, they may prescribe it for any purpose that they wish to do so. And, this (FDA’s decision) actually removes a potential barrier to them,” the Health Secretary said…

If you follow just one link from this post, please read the conclusion at the bottom of this linked page.


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Posted by Drew458   United States  on 06/18/2020 at 10:16 AM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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calendar   Tuesday - June 16, 2020

FDA HCQ EUA BS

“FDA Revokes Emergency Use Authorization For HCQ”

And the media spin shifts into overdrive. Pity these Trump hating fools have the reading comprehension level of a barnacle. Or they have an axe to grind, and are willing to play extra stupid to shape your unthinking opinion. Or both, because feelz and reasons.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Monday revoked the emergency use authorization (EUA) for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine donated to the Strategic National Stockpile to treat certain hospitalized coronavirus patients, according to a new statement.

The FDA decided the legal criteria for issuing an EUA were “no longer met.”

Further, the FDA determined, based on ongoing analysis of the EUA and emerging scientific data, that the two drugs are unlikely to be effective in treating COVID-19 for the authorized uses in the EUA. While the drugs are deemed generally safe when prescribed for patients with malaria or an autoimmune disease, little was otherwise known about the potential effects they had in COVID-19 patients.

“In light of ongoing serious cardiac adverse events and other potential serious side effects, the known and potential benefits of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine no longer outweigh the known and potential risks for the authorized use,” according to an FDA press release issued on Monday.

FoxNews gives you the information fairly straight up (you don’t want to see how the NYT handled this story), but they don’t explain it to the reader at all.

What it actually means is that the FDA’s edict that limited the use of the federal stockpiles of this drug to hospitalized COVID patients has been rescinded. Which means that those stockpiles are now available on the open market for any authorized medical person.

It does NOT mean that HCQ has been banned, or that it will no longer be used for patients in hospitals. All it means is that the mountains of pills that were donated to the government are no longer limited exclusively to hospitalized patients who were not part of a clinical trial.

Possibly because there aren’t that many hospitalized patients left. Or because there are millions and millions of these pills available. Or because nearly all of the clinical trials were built to fail from the outset. Or because it was known from the beginning that this approach really worked best on people who weren’t yet sick enough to be sent to the hospital.

You just have to remember that the FDA is just as filled with lawyers as every other part of the government, and they write statements filled with weasel words, caveats, innuendo, and ultra-specific subjects.

Today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) revoked the emergency use authorization (EUA) that allowed for chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine sulfate donated to the Strategic National Stockpile to be used to treat certain hospitalized patients with COVID-19 when a clinical trial was unavailable, or participation in a clinical trial was not feasible. The agency determined that the legal criteria for issuing an EUA are no longer met. Based on its ongoing analysis of the EUA and emerging scientific data, the FDA determined that chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are unlikely to be effective in treating COVID-19 for the authorized uses in the EUA. Additionally, in light of ongoing serious cardiac adverse events and other potential serious side effects, the known and potential benefits of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine no longer outweigh the known and potential risks for the authorized use.

“unlikely to be effective ... for the authorized uses”. Which means “duh, the stuff doesn’t do much when the patient is already nearly dead”.

“the known and potential risks for the authorized uses”. Note the weasel-ocity. “known” and “potential” risks. Well, which one? The ones you think are there, or the ones you have TDS circle jerk fantasies about? Yes, if you have a pre-existing heart condition, HCQ can temporarily give you the dreaded “QT extension”. Which means the valves in your heart don’t open and close at quite the right speed, so your heart isn’t working as efficiently as it ought to. Arrhythmia is another one; heavy doses of the drug can speed up your heartbeat in an irregular manner. Very few people actually die from this, or have a stroke, or a heart attack. But it’s one of the known side effects of the medicine that has been taken by tens of millions of people, billions of times, for over 70 years. Also note the other weasel-ness, “for the authorized uses”, which means that these side effects are perhaps more common in the hospitalized patients ... many of whom got there because they had all kinds of nasty pre-existing conditions. Could HCQ have helped them if it was taken before they became deathly ill? How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop? The world may never know.

The news media has missed the truth in this story: the FDA is almost admitting that their directive, their EUA, was improper to begin with. This missive is almosta mea culpa.

And being good journalists who are on top of the Big Picture and the Back Story, they completely drop the ball concerning the poor neglected put upon maligned Dr. Bright, aka the COVID whistleblower, who’s story broke just less than 2 weeks ago. Poor guy upset the big shots, and was “relegated” to some obscure corner of the project, where he merely was in charge of A BILLION DOLLARS worth of research spending.

PS - Now guess WHO (hur hur) was behind the EUA to begin with, which appears to have been a compromise action (set up to fail) between Big Pharma and President Trump. You win: it was Dr. Bright. The EUA was a directive that severely LIMITED the use of HCQ.

In fact, the EUA was put in place to improperly restrict use of the donated drugs to only hospitalized patients. The now infamous “whistle-blower” Rick Bright, PhD, admits that he pushed for the EUA to impede use (not expand it).

A good outcome of today’s FDA order is that it states that the NSS supply of HCQ “can be distributed in interstate commerce.” This means it could be available for off-label early treatment, instead of limited to only hospitalized patients.

Today’s revocation of the EUA by the FDA is, in a sense, an admission that the agency erred by limiting the supply in the NSS to use in hospitalized patients.

The Trump Administration wanted to make the donated HCQ available for early treatment outside of hospital settings, but Rick Bright pushed for an EUA to restrict use to hospitals where it is often too late for the treatment to be beneficial.

In fact, the EUA was put in place to improperly restrict use of the donated drugs to only hospitalized patients.  The now infamous “whistle-blower” Rick Bright, PhD, admits that he pushed for the EUA to impede use (not expand it).

Deep State much? TDS? Sounds like it to me. Dr. Zelenko agrees, calling the FDA statement misleading and Nazi-level propaganda.

Meanwhile the spin gets worse by the hour.  Let’s go to the video.

President Donald Trump continued to tout the benefits of the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine for coronavirus patients on Monday, despite word from the Food and Drug Administration Monday that regulators are revoking emergency authorization for it.

The FDA said the drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are unlikely to be effective in treating the coronavirus and could cause serious side effects.

Trump said he hadn’t seen the statement from his own administration but maintained he’s had many people tell him they are “thrilled” with the drug’s results in reducing COVID symptoms.


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Posted by Drew458   United States  on 06/16/2020 at 11:24 AM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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