So now it starts
Hi Mr. C.
I have what may seem a dumb question but ... I just have to ask.We (Americans) have known for years just how paranoid the russkies are. Therefore, why is a Russian missile station ON THEIR OWN territory a bother to us?
And haven’t we played on their paranoia with the suggestion that we put the same in their back yard? Look how bothered we got with their missiles in ‘Cuber’ all those many years ago.I confess, I am not up to speed on this sort of thing and don’t understand it.
This is going to get ugly.
“Therefore, why is a Russian missile station ON THEIR OWN territory a bother to us?”
Why? Because Kalingrad is a Russian ENCLAVE surrounded by nations that bear no direct threat for Russia to post these missiles EXCEPT IN RESPONSE TO THE MISSILE SHIELD. It is surrounded by Polish, Ukrainian, and Lithuanian territory. It would not be able to stand up to a siege, but nobody is in danger of trying to attack Russia right now, especially after Georgia.
And it bothers us because this is a large Russian pistol cocked and aiming at the heart of Europe. The Missile Shield itself is purely defensive: there are no silos being installed in Poland as part of the MS. But it would deter Russian moves West like HELL, as Chechnya and Georgia have shown the fact that one of Russia’s strongest arms is its Artillery and missile systems, while the Infantry and Armor sections have clearly suffered hits in quality.
This Missile shield would force Russia to fight us without the aid of its strongest conventional weapon, and, given the poor quality Russia is infamous for, that would likely not turn out well for them.
Pray to god for President Bush and President-Elect Obama. Because THIS should show that there are far bigger threats out there then our tiny in-house squabbles.
Posted by Turtler
11/05/2008 at 11:51 AM
The phone’s ringing Barry and it ain’t even 3a.m. yet!!!!
Posted by harleycowboy58
11/05/2008 at 02:08 PM
Now that Lithuania, Czech Republic and Poland etc. are in the EU will the “EU army” come marching to their rescue? I think not. My understanding is the missile shield is designed to deter rogue states like Iran but the Russians have always been paranoid and don’t accept this explanation. I agree with Mr.C BHO is going to be tested. In my opinion he will be found wanting. He is a triumph of style over substance.
And how exactly do the Russians intend to prevent Polish, Ukranian and Lithuanian military assets from drawing a very tight bead on these missiles. Kaliningrad isn’t all that big
after all.LyndonB:
“Now that Lithuania, Czech Republic and Poland etc. are in the EU will the “EU army” come marching to their rescue? I think not.”
I am not so sure. If the EU were to allow a few of her members to be swallowed by Russia, it would likely be a loss of prestige that would lead to their dismantlement. Not saying they would, persee, just that it isn’t impossible.
ibm:
“And how exactly do the Russians intend to prevent Polish, Ukranian and Lithuanian military assets from drawing a very tight bead on these missiles. Kaliningrad isn’t all that big
after all.”Likely the same way the Germans and and Soviets prevented the Poles from striking German Eastern Prussia in 1939: Strike hard, over a long front, with vastly superior forces. Granted, in order for that to work, the Ukraine would pretty much need to be crushed or brought back under Russia’s thumb (which, given the Blue backlash against the Orangists, is a possibility). However, I would ultimately guess that this is primarily a bluff. Kalingrad would likely have been overrun far before the Russian relief forces get there, but it is a powerful statement that Russia is trying to reestablish itself in the Baltic and Central Europe. Be Afraid. Be very Afraid.
Posted by Turtler
11/05/2008 at 06:19 PM
Turtler for starters you and I both know there is no EU army despite the calls from Sarkozy and others. You only need to look at the response of the supposed NATO members in Afghanistan to see how they would react. The Germans, Belgians French et al are happy to be in NATO so long as it doesn’t involve actual fighting. The Russians will do as they like. The only military powers they respect are the US and China.
I think this was pretty well shown up in the Georgian debacle. The EU is a toothless non entity and when push comes to shove capitulation will be the order of the day. I seem to recall reading some five or so years back that the CIA assessment of the EU was that it would collapse in the next fifteen years. It is an artificial construct and the Russians know it will roll over and cry uncle unless the US, Britain and Canada come to the rescue.
"Turtler for starters you and I both know there is no EU army despite the calls from Sarkozy and others.”
Yes. However, the half formal/half informal guarantees, agreements, etc more or less would have a good portion of the military power of the EU’s member states committed to defend a fellow member-state under attack. At least on paper. So, since I do not feel like typing out Franco-Italian-German-Greek-Dutch-Belgian etc. Task Force, I let it be.
Granted, as you point out, this does NOT necessarily mean they will actually come, but I think that their knowledge of NATO, coupled with the Agreements, topped off by Putin’s ambitions would likely force their hand.
“You only need to look at the response of the supposed NATO members in Afghanistan to see how they would react”
Part of the reason for the lukewarm NATO response is because public dissent and governmental brown-nosing, largely because Europe pretty much does not perceive the WoT like we do. While these factors will almost certainly remain in any Russo-EU War, the stakes are far higher, given the relatively new commitments made at the top an the lingering Anti-Russian sentiment from the Rape of Georgia. It is pretty much a coin flip to see how they react, but I am starting to think that even Europe cannot ignore Putin’s gauntlet. Besides, Russia is weak compared to its historical average, and, as we have learned from the Crimean War, Russia is vulnerable to having its vital but difficult-to-reach extremities pinched off by a superior naval force. Will it be pretty? God no. But, just as it was the bloody Siege of Stevastopol by the Anglo-Franco-Italians, and the Pacific and Baltic Naval Campaigns that forced the Czar to the peacetable and halted Russian expansion into the Middle East and Balkans for twenty years, the Russian Bear can be broken through the Polish-Ukrainian meatgrinder and the strategic Naval Campaigns.
And Putin may be evil, but he is not stupid. He knows that he has racked up an amazing list of foes, and that he is seen as being militarily weak to maintain his status as a Great Leader of a Great Power. And while defeat would certainly hurt his pretensions, a prolonged military conflict would perhaps be even worse, as everyone knows that the vaunted Russian Military is a shadow of its former self, and Russia still suffers a demographic weakness inherited from 50 years of spending blood like water (1904-1956) and previous war costs that helped to worsen that (Crimean War, 1877 war, and Russo-Chinese border conflicts come to mind). If he cannot obtain a decisive victory, several nations, from China to Finland could team up to tear his “Empire” apart, and his chief ally, Lukashenko, could be ousted by the popular Belarusian opposition (complete with an organized Government-in-Exile).
While none of these things may be particularly likely to happen, they could. And while Putin is a gambler, he is not a reckless one. And the risks of being involved in a major continental (perhaps world) war would act as a powerful determent. Hitler ordered his men to fall back in the Rhineland if the Franco-Belgians offered battle, but, unlike Hitler, Putin has relatively little to gain and everything to loose if he were to engage in such brinkmanship before he is ready. The ultimate question is if he would be bold enough to make a gamble. And that I do not know.
“The only military powers they respect are the US and China.”
Perhaps, but there is always the risk to Russia of pilling up a roster of non-entities on the enemy list that, together, could stop him in his tracks. It has happened before(Ottoman Turkey in the Balkan Wars is a particularly strong example, as is Paraguay in the War of the Triple Alliance, and Britain in the Revolutionary War).
“I think this was pretty well shown up in the Georgian debacle. The EU is a toothless non entity and when push comes to shove capitulation will be the order of the day.”
The difference between Georgia and Poland-Baltic Republics-Ukraine is that Georgia was a strategic backwater that was not a member of the EU, and still isn’t. Poland and the Baltic Republics ARE, and, while the same cannot be said for the Ukraine, it is large enough that no power could ignore its fall like Georgia. Could the EU still crumble? Certainly. They aren’t the most muscular organization ever (indeed, they are probably competing with the UN for most toothless organization ever), but the fact is that, even if the EU did nothing, Russia is still facing war with the US, and if even a token clash between Russia and an EU member is to break out, the threat of American involvement would not be insignificant.
All I can say is that time will tell.
Let us pray to God that Russia can be stopped in time.
Posted by Turtler
11/05/2008 at 11:48 PM
Frankly,if O’benothing keeps his word then this will be moot. I beleive he said that missle shield technology is untested and not worth persuing so I assume he will cancel the Polish agreement as well as the positioning of the shield in poland. Maybe treaty obligations are already signed so it has to go forward but one thing about treaties is they are historicly broken on the flimsiest of excuses.
And that’s the point, Rich. Poland would get fucked AGAIN.
I don’t have the depth of knowledge base (which is why I stupidly walked out of my only Poly Sci class in college the first day and dropped it - very stupid indeed) that you guys have.
I was going to comment that GWB could really shaft (so to speak) B. Hussein Obama by dropping the bomb on Iran or Russia on his last day. However I read (Reuters via Drudge)this morning that Putin is plotting a return to control the helm - why not, America just elected an empty suit - who the heck is going to stop him - the UN!?!
Yepper, the phone is ringing Barry and you are going to learn to be very careful what you wish for!
11/05/2008 at 11:41 AM
11/05/2008 at 03:46 PM
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