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calendar   Sunday - August 18, 2013

thing about guns and crime and stats

Away all day yesterday and so trying to catch up. BTW ... apologies to those and especially Lyndon for non replies to emails.
I only recently checked my mail and it was darn near full. Or looked it anyway.  As regulars here will have seen, my posting has not been up to the numbers I used to post.  Personal matters restrict my time quite a bit these days. 

So, I booted today to check things and read yesterday comments etc, and came across a link of some interest.

H/T Rich K for the LINK to this posted in comments.  I thought the article deserved posting here on our front page.  Not that most of you didn’t already know much of this.  I confess there are a couple of things I find a bit confusing, and will mention same at the end.


CDC Study Ordered by Obama Contradicts White House Anti-gun Narrative

Written by Bob Adelmann

In January, following the Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre, President Obama issued a “Presidential Memorandum directing the Centers for Disease Control to research the causes and prevention of gun violence,” along with 22 other “initiatives.” That study, subcontracted out to the Institute of Medicine and National Research Council, was completed in June and contained some surprises for the president.

Obama had announced at the beginning of the year his push for three major gun control initiatives — universal background checks, a ban on “assault weapons,” and a ban on “high-capacity” magazines — to prevent future mass shootings, no doubt hoping that the CDC study would oblige him by providing evidence that additional gun control measures were justified to reduce gun violence. On the contrary, that study refuted nearly all the standard anti-gun narrative and instead supported many of the positions taken by gun ownership supporters.

For example, the majority of gun-related deaths between 2000 and 2010 were due to suicide and not criminal violence:
Between the years 2000-2010 firearm-related suicides significantly outnumbered homicides for all age groups, annually accounting for 61 percent of the more than 335,600 people who died from firearms related violence in the United States.


In addition, defensive use of guns “is a common occurrence,” according to the study:

Almost all national survey estimates indicate that defensive gun uses by victims are at least as common as offensive uses by criminals, with estimates of annual uses ranging from about 500,000 to more than 3 million per year, in the context of about 300,000 violent crimes involving firearms in 2008.

Accidental deaths due to firearms has continued to fall as well, with “the number of unintentional deaths due to firearm-related incidents account[ing] for less than 1 percent of all unintentional fatalities in 2010.”

Furthermore, the key finding the president was no doubt seeking — that more laws would result in less crime — was missing. The study said that “interventions,” such as background checks and restrictions on firearms and increased penalties for illegal gun use, showed “mixed” results, while “turn-in” programs “are ineffective” in reducing crime. The study noted that most criminals obtained their guns in the underground economy — from friends, family members, or gang members — well outside any influence from gun controls on legitimate gun owners.

Also, the report noted that mass shootings such as the one in Newtown, Connecticut, have declined and “account for a very small fraction of all firearm-related deaths.”

There was one startling conclusion which, taken at face value, seemed to give the president what he was looking for. The study reported that “the U.S. rate of firearm-related homicide is higher than that of any other industrialized country: 19.5 times higher than the rates in other high-income countries.” However, Zara Matheson of the Martin Prosperity Institute, produced a map that compared gun violence rates in the major metropolitan areas of the country to rates of foreign countries. As Graham Noble of Guardian Express noted, “If one were to exclude figures for Illinois, California, New Jersey and Washington, DC, the homicide rate in the United States would be in line with any other country.” These areas, of course, are noted for the most restrictive gun laws in the country, thus negating any opportunity for the president to celebrate the report’s findings.

The current report from the CDC echoed findings the CDC published back in 2003 that showed that suicides were responsible for 58 percent of all firearms-related deaths in 2000. Also noted is that back in 2003 Americans owned an estimated 192 million firearms, while today that number is estimated to be closer to 300 million, an increase of more than 55 percent.

Said the CDC back in 2003, “Evidence was insufficient to determine the effectiveness of any of these laws” (Emphasis added.):

Bans on specified firearms or ammunition,

Restrictions on firearm acquisition,

Waiting periods for firearm acquisition,

Firearm registration and licensing of owners, and

Zero tolerance for firearms in schools.

mass shootings such as the one in Newtown, Connecticut, have declined and “account for a very small fraction of all firearm-related deaths.”

Whoa hang on a minute.  Someone has to explain this one to me, cos it just seems like a weird and pointless statistic. What have I missed or misunderstood?
Newton was so darn recent, there can’t have been enough time to make that statement a statistic.  OK, I suppose technically since there has not been another mass school killing you might stretch the point.  But wouldn’t you need a lot more time ?  If there’s been “insufficient evidence” (based on events I’d assume) that the CDC uses in one set of examples, then surely there is insufficient evidence with regard to the above example I have questions about.

Also ... re. waiting periods.  Is a waiting period a bad thing? Or, does it work for the common good?  I’m going on the assumption that this is in regard to waiting while a buyer is checked out as not being on a crime list, like someone recently out of jail for a serious crime.  And there seem to be lots of those guys roaming about based on what I read daily.

The following isn’t anything new to most here.  I got it at Wikipedia.

The Colt AR-15 is a lightweight, 5.56 mm, magazine-fed, air cooled, semi-automatic rifle, with a rotating-lock bolt, actuated by direct impingement gas operation or long/short stroke piston operation. It is manufactured with the extensive use of aluminum alloys and synthetic materials.

The AR-15 was first built by ArmaLite as an assault rifle for the United States armed forces.[8] Because of financial problems, ArmaLite sold the AR-15 design to Colt. After modifications (Most notably: the charging handle was re-located from under the carrying handle like AR-10 to the rear of the receiver), the new redesigned rifle was subsequently adopted as the M16 Rifle.[9] Colt then started selling the semi-automatic version of the M16 rifle as the Colt AR-15 for civilian sales in 1963 and the term has been used to refer to semiautomatic-only versions of the rifle since then.[10] Although the name “AR-15” remains a Colt registered trademark, variants of the firearm are independently made, modified and sold under various names by multiple manufacturers.

The AR-15 comes in many sizes and has many options, depending on the manufacturer. The part shown bottom center is the lower receiver with pistol grip and trigger assembly. Under U.S. law the lower alone is the component legally considered the “firearm”.

image
I really didn’t know that. I always assumed the whole thing was taken as a unit and was a “firearm”.  So I guess I learned something new.
Over here, you could probably be arrested for just having the top part.

Hmmmm. I guess I’d need both parts to delete the neighbor’s dog. Wonder if I could ...... whoops. Never mind. 
Actually, been quiet last month as they’ve been away for summer holiday.  Been awhile.  They are I was informed, on a tour in India and other places.
Maybe they’ll get nailed over there in a riot or some other welcomed disaster.  Hey, there isn’t much except hope. Have to cling to that. For awhile.


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Posted by peiper   United Kingdom  on 08/18/2013 at 04:12 AM   
Filed Under: • Guns and Gun Control •  
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Oh, and here's some kind of visitor flag counter thingy. Hey, all the cool blogs have one, so I should too. The Visitors Online thingy up at the top doesn't count anything, but it looks neat. It had better, since I paid actual money for it.
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