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calendar   Thursday - June 11, 2020

Running The COVID Numbers Once Again

Are We There YET?


image

source. I added the red line.

PS - these numbers include the vastly increased testing. More than 10% of the NJ population has now been tested

Given an average recovery time of 6 weeks for all but the most severe cases, nearly all the people who tested positive before April 30 should be well by now. That’s 118,652 as of April 30. Total cases so far is 165,346, which implies 46,694 active cases, of which a bit more than 21% are in LTC and not out in public. Call it 30,000 net “public” cases, with 1512 of those in hospital. So 28,500 at large. State population is 8.9 million. Under a third of one percent, 1 in 300, and hopefully they’re staying mostly at home.

By the end of April we had about 608 cases in the county.  My point here is that nearly all of the patients identified on or before April 30 are either already recovered or dead. ( Second standard deviation (SD = 1.5 weeks; mean of 3.5+1.5+1.5 = 6.5) covers 95%, so call it 92% recovered as of now. )

1028 total according to today’s reports, with 383 in LTC. 37%. That leaves 420 cases since then. Running with the 37% LTC number leaves 63% in public, 265. April 30 was 6 weeks ago, so it’s fair to assume that at least half of those patients since then have already recovered. Down to 133. Which isn’t really that much, given the size of the county and the 125,000 population. So it’s time to ease up, right?

Small update: prison data shows 3141 cases, of which 2363 are inmates. So that takes the state “at large” number 28,500 down to 26,317 and drops the public cases total to 0.29%, 1 in 338.

Statewide, 34,799 cases of the 165,346 have been at LTC. 21%.  6,327 deaths at LTC of the total 12,337 deaths in the state. 51%.

My county of Hunterdon is seeing 0 to 3 new cases per day.

I finally found the state numbers for the prisons, including the women’s prison here in my Union Township, although COVID testing sites were destroyed by rioting.

UPDATE: Thank you nice numbers lady at the county
Inmates and residents at the state run institutions in the county count as part of the local COVID numbers. Staff only counts if they happen to live in the county.

This changes my numbers, but in a good way. There are 199 inmates and residents at the two facilities in our township. There have been 230 cases in our township since this all began. Which means just 31 “public” cases since February, from a population of 5500. 0.56%.  The next township over ... every single one of their cases is in “Boys Town”, aka Mountainview Youth Correctional Facility. Every. Single. One.

Governor Murphy’s One Size Fits All re-opening plan is faulty. Ok, it’s excessively cautious. Going county by county, or even town by town, would make things much better much faster for almost no risk. And Hunterdon County has been one of the least impacted counties in the state this whole time.


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Posted by Drew458   United States  on 06/11/2020 at 08:30 AM   
Filed Under: • Governmentpandemic and epidemic diseasesTyrants and Dictators •  
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