Friday - April 25, 2008

Proxy War Heating Up?

The U.S. military says it has found caches of newly made Iranian weapons in Iraq, leading senior officials to conclude Tehran is continuing to funnel armaments into Iraq despite its pledges to the contrary.

Officials in Washington and Baghdad said the purported Iranian mortars, rockets and explosives had date stamps indicating they were manufactured in the past two months. The U.S. plans to publicize the weapons caches in coming days. A pair of senior commanders said a presentation was tentatively planned for Monday.
...
ast fall, U.S. and Iraqi officials said Mr. Ahmadinejad had told the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki that Tehran would take steps to curb shipments of Iranian weaponry into Iraq.

The weapons of deepest concern to U.S. officials were explosively formed penetrators, or EFPs, which U.S. officials accuse Iran of manufacturing and shipping to Shiite militants. EFPs, which are capable of punching through even the strongest U.S. armor, have been responsible for hundreds of American deaths.
...
Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, focused his recent congressional testimony almost exclusively on Iran, which he said was playing a “destructive role” by funneling advanced weaponry to Shiite militants in Iraq

The use of the EFPs had diminished for a while after Ahmadumjihad had promised Iraqi PM Maliki Iran would try harder to control smuggling. Now their use has flared up again. Maybe they were just being stockpiled for a while?

Meanwhile, Iran’s stooge in place, rotundo Al-Sadr (I guess he got over the food poisoning?) is yelling and screaming and threatening more war. He launched two major uprising in the past, and is now threatening more. But Maliki wants his forces to disband, saying there is no room in Iraq for a seperate private army. Clashes between the forces are increasing, with probably close to 100 Mahdi Army casualties so far, though the MSM is reporting many less. From Bill Roggio’s Long War Journal:

The showdown with the Mahdi Army continues in Baghdad and outlying areas to the North as Iraq’s prime minister says the days of the militias are over. US and Iraqi forces engaged the Mahdi Army in Baghdad and the towns of Rashidiyah and Hussaniyah in northern Baghdad Province over the past several days, killing 16 Mahdi Army fighters and capturing five. Seventy-two Mahdi Army fighters have been killed in Baghdad since Muqtada al Sadr threatened to initiate a third uprising.

The largest clash occurred in Hussaniyah, a town north of Baghdad, on April 22 when an Iraqi patrol was ambushed by a “criminal group” armed with roadside bombs, rocket-propelled grenades, and small arms. Iraqi troops, backed by US Special Forces advisers, counterattacked and killed nine Mahdi Army fighters and destroyed two of their vehicles.

Hussaniyah has been a hotbed of Mahdi Army activity in the recent past. In August 2007, US troops surrounded the town after patrols were ambushed. In October, US troops uncovered a weapons factory where explosively formed penetrators and other roadside bombs were manufactured.
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South of Baghdad, Iraqi forces captured a Mahdi Army leader and two others and seized an IED factory in Karbala. US forces also found 12 Iranian-made rocket launchers, which were aimed at a nearby forward operating base.
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The US military has slowly begun to stop making distinctions between the Mahdi Army and the Criminals and Iranian-trained Special Groups as the fighting has flared since March. Colonel Allen Batschelet, the chief of staff for Multinational Division Baghdad, came closest to admitting the distinctions are often meaningless.

Some background on Al-Sadr and the Mahdi Army; it’s so hard to tell the players without a score card.

I don’t like what I’m seeing here. While this could be the last great attempt by Iran to foment another civil war in Iraq, it could also be a putsch by Maliki against opponents. The only thing I’m sure of is that American troops are going to be caught in the middle of this muddle. I think it would have been better to have offed al-Sadr several years ago when we had the chance.

And just for extra fun, little Yemen is about to fall off the cliff and descend into anrachy. War in the North, riots in the south, hungry people everywhere. Naturally they’re another oil producing nation. Yemen is about the size of California, though its borders are sandy and not well defined.

UPDATE:
CNN says Al-Sadr is threatening all-out war against “occupiers”:

Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr threatened “open war,” against the American “occupiers” and not the Iraqi government, according to a letter read by a top aide during Friday prayers.

Yet, at the same time, other sources see the very same speech as a call for peace:

Less than one week after threatening to conduct an uprising against the Iraqi government and US forces, Muqtada al Sadr, the leader of the Mahdi Army, has called for his fighters to maintain the self-imposed cease-fire. The US and Iraqi military continue to strike at Sadr’s Mahdi Army in Baghdad. Ten “criminals” were killed in strikes in Sadr City, making 82 Mahdi fighters killed in the six days since Sadr threatened renewed violence.

Go read the rest, along with some very helpful comments, over at The Long War Journal.

Posted by Drew458     on 04/25/2008 at 07:58 AM   
Filed Under: • Iraq •  
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