Monday - August 11, 2008
Prediction: say goodbye to Georgia
UPDATE: THE END IS NEAR
Russian troops on the move toward Tbilisi. War likely to be over by Thursday at the latest.
Fat lady starts signing before the curtain goes up
Part 1: a look at pre-emptive surrender, um I mean “anticipatory capitulation” from Europe.
Part 2: Analyzing Georgia’s loss even while the fighting continues. Sad to say, but sometimes the bear eats you, and sometimes the bear eats you. It’s tough to eat a whole bear all by yourself.
Part 3: Atlanta Georgia in flames. Cities of Gori, Senaki, Zugdidi falling as Georgians exit post haste. South Ossetian capital city of Tskhinvali is in ruins.
Part 4: UN still useless: 4 meetings in 4 days and they can’t even agree to draft a resolution.
Saakashvili also warned that Russian aggression, if unchecked, would spread.
“Unless Russia is stopped … tomorrow Russian tanks might enter any European capital,” he said in a televised address on Friday. “I think everyone understands this by now.”
I think Saakashvili is learning what happens when you smack the Russian Bear in the nuts with a 2x4. Do I have the right understanding that the Georgian president started this whole thing
by sending troops into South Ossetia ... to put down rebel forces or something ... and that Ossetia (North & South) is actually part of
And after having attacked Russia and received an instant bloody nose, Saakashvili and various world leaders called for a time out an immediate cease-fire, which the Russians are ignoring?
That’s about what it looks like to me. Piss of the bear and get mauled. And the bear will chew on you as much as he wants until it gets boring. And there ain’t a thing you can do about it. Looks to me like the break-away republic of Georgia will be part of the N.C.C.P. inside a week. Bad move Saakashvili.
I could not be more wrong. IF, and it may be a big IF, IF this map is correct:
then South Ossetia is a region within Georgia. Which would explain why it’s being called a break away province. Duh. Well, when this hornet’s nest was first kicked over, I used Google Earth to find the place, and it really looked like South Ossetia was the region south of North Ossetia, south of the Caucus Mountains that run east-west there, but part of Russia, north of the Georgian border. So it could look like Georgia was trying to steal territory from the ruskies.
So it must be the case that “South Ossetia” is one of those unmapped regional zones, like “Kurdistan” that refer more to a region where some indigenous population lives, and less to where some arbitrary lines are drawn on a map? Ok then. I get it now.
So why has Russian been handing out passports to the people who live in this area for quite some time now? Isn’t that a rather dirty trick? Wouldn’t that be like Mexico mailing everyone in Texas and New Mexico a passport, and then sending in their army when the feds raid another religious cult center (like Waco) down there?
Ok then. This is looking more like typical Red thuggery. Dirty bastards. But they are going to win unless Georgia gets major outside help. The UN will do nothing. The euro-wienies will do nothing and they have no army to do it with. They dicked about so long with Georgia’s attempt to join NATO ... and Georgia still isn’t a member IIRC. So that won’t be a motivation for them. What kind of forces does the Ukraine have, and will they get involved in neighbor vs. neighbor? Probably not. That leaves the US. But we seem to have our hands full elsewhere. So how can we rush to the defense of this ally? Air campaign? Without their planes, tanks, trucks, and artillery, the Russian Army is just an armed mob. A big armed mob, but a mob nonetheless. If we went in and blew up all their toys that are inside Georgia, and defended their airspace, with that be enough to stop the Bear from advancing? I don’t know, but I bet we have less than 3 days to find out. And then what?
TBILISI, Georgia — Russian forces swept across Georgia on Monday, capturing the town of Gori and moving to within 35 miles of the capital city Tbilisi, FOX News confirmed.
Georgia reportedly was rushing more than 1,000 troops to Tbilisi in anticipation of a battle with Russian troops.
Russian armor, meanwhile, moved beyond two breakaway provinces and seized a military base and police stations in the country’s west, officials said.
The new forays into Georgia — even after Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili signed a cease-fire pledge — appeared to show Russian determination to subdue the small, U.S.-backed country, which has been pressing for NATO membership.
The latest developments indicate that Russian troops have invaded Georgia proper from the separatist province of Abkhazia while most Georgian forces are locked up in fighting around South Ossetia.
That means Russia has them pinned but good. They have the Black Sea to the west blockaded. They have a ton of troops coming down from the border in the north, who by some convenient miracle just happened to be sitting en mass across the border just the other day. Hmm. Now they’ve come in from Abkhazia from the northwest, which takes out half of Georgia’s coastline. Um, I may be seeing some media bias here? Just how “separatist” is this province anyway? Because it’s about a fifth of the entire country. And coming into “Georgia proper” from there pretty much means they already control that entire area. I think Georgia is well and truly fucked.
The West has sharply criticized Russia’s military response to Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia as disproportionate, and the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations urged Russia on Monday to accept an immediate cease-fire and agree to international mediation.
“We want to see the Russians stand down,” deputy State Department spokesman Robert Wood told reporters in Washington.
In your dreams. Ain’t gonna happen. Unless you can smack the bear hard enough to stop him in his tracks. And that probably won’t happen either.
The United States is campaigning to get Russia to halt its retaliation and American officials have accused Russia of using the fighting to try to overthrow the Georgian government.
Um, am I misunderstanding everything all over again? The Georgian leader sent troops in to an area in his own country right? So how on earth is Russian involvement “retaliation”? Or is the modern way to steal territory from your neighbors the issuing of passports? “Look, more than half the people here have Russian passports. Therefore they must be Russian citizens. Therefore this must be Russian territory.” Pretty sneaky move there Vlad.
Putin’s comments reflected Russia’s growing irritation with Western condemnation.
“The scale of their cynicism causes surprise,” Putin said. “It’s the ability to cast white as black and black as white which is surprising, the ability to cast the aggressor as the victim and blame the victims for the consequences.”
Putin remarks also reflected deep anger at Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili.
“Of course, Saddam Hussein ought to have been hanged for destroying several Shiite villages,” Putin said. “And the incumbent Georgian leaders who razed ten Ossetian villages at once, who ran elderly people and children with tanks, who burned civilian alive in their sheds — these leaders must be taken under protection.”
Putin is telling the story ass backwards, and his story is that everyone else is seeing this situation ass backwards. It’s a double negation. At least! Yeah, it’s Good Mother Russia rushing to the aid of some poor mistreated victims. Like that’s ever happened. But it shows an essential truth:
Control the press and you control the truth. And perhaps the world as well.
I welcome comments from readers who have a better understanding of this mess than I do and can find some grains of the truth.
Posted by Drew458
on 08/11/2008 at 12:27 PM
Filed Under: • War-Stories •
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