Monday - July 06, 2020

Monday Morning COVID BS

Sorry. I’m sick to death of it too.

NEW JERSEY – New projections and data suggest New Jersey is on the right course after nearly a month of reopenings that have impacted the coronavirus outbreak. But Gov. Phil Murphy said there are signs that “we run the risk of this thing coming back at us” if New Jersey doesn’t remain cautious.

Indeed, there are signs that the rate of transmission is still too high in New Jersey’s more rural counties, particularly in South Jersey. And a study from researchers and epidemiologists says New Jersey is no longer on track to contain the coronavirus as infection numbers surge to record new highs across the country.

According to the administration’s models:

Hospitalizations were expected to drop 22 percent from July 1 through 7.
Active infections were expected to drop 22 percent to 2,174 from July 1 through 7. The July 7 number would be a 53 percent drop from June 19th.
ICU patients were expected to drop from 170 to 131 on July 7th.

The Murphy administration also noted that numbers have declined since the reopenings started more than a month ago.

On June 4th, 1,982 people were hospitalized. On Sunday, the number was 917.
On June 4 th, 537 people were in critical or intensive care. On Sunday, the number was 210.
On May 17th, when the reopenings started, Murphy announced that New Jersey had 1,272 new cases. On Sunday, the number was 303.

But, based on the models and other factors, there are some concerning signs that perhaps contributed to Murphy’s decision to suspend the reopening of indoor dining.

Here are some factors that may cause concern:

The state’s case rate is actually running ahead of its recent projections. The Murphy administration’s models predicted that New Jersey would have 170,842 total cases by Tuesday; it had 171,667.

Yes, the lead factor for “concern” is that the real world number is less that 1/2% higher than the latest projection. Oh noes, reality! Run, hide, shelter in place!!

Meanwhile, another 80,000 people have been tested here in NJ since my last screed on this topic. Well, given the PCR swab test. No numbers for the antibody test, and 1,270 for the saliva test in our local 2 county pilot testing project. This adds up to 17.25% of the population of the entire state.

This is the very first news article I’ve seen anywhere that mentions the number of active cases. Obviously this number is known, and known in every county in the nation. Yet it is not a stat the public needs to see I guess. Um, wrong! It’s the only stat that matters.

Hunterdon County is still not fully opened. Masks must be worn to go into any business, customers limited to 25% of capacity, haircuts, manicures, massages, by appointment only, movie theaters still not open, no eat in dining, etc.

A recent report by a leftwing, Silicon Valley/Soros funded “watchdog” group called COVID Action Now ( IMO anything with “action” and/or “now” in it’s name is guaranteed to be a leftist commie rag ) has declared that my county is not “controlling” the virus, and that our spreading rate, the infamous R value, is greater than 1.0. Danger Will Robinson, Danger!!!  This is an obvious farm cart full of horse apples.

Posted by Drew458     on 07/06/2020 at 07:39 AM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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