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calendar   Friday - March 27, 2020

Livin On The Edge

We salute you, Captain Obvious

The Northeast isn’t that big an area, but a whole lot of people live here.

I looked at some of those coronavirus numbers in a bit of detail this morning. It reminds me of those nuclear fallout drawings we used to see back in the day.

The vast majority of confirmed cases in the USA are within a 100 mile radius of New York City and within a 50 mile radius of Boston.

The news is full of the counts on a state by state basis, but if you look a little closer at the county level you’ll see the real story.

NY: 38,977
NJ: 6876
MA: 2417
PA: 1718
CT: 1012
-----------
51,000

Entire USA: 69,246

That means that 73.65% - nearly three quarters - of all the cases are in these 5 states. 3 out of 4 cases. Crivens.

However, a huge portion of those cases are close to those two major metropolitan areas. Most of the rest of them are centered around the other minor metro areas like Philadelphia and Buffalo.

Out here in the “sticks” of rural NW NJ, Hunterdon County has 39 cases today. [ 6pm update: FUCK. We just got the automated emergency phone call. Now it’s 60 cases. That’s a 50% increase since this morning. ] Warren County, the next county up and even more rural, has 31. Down in the low population, even more rural, SE corner of the state, the combined total for Atlantic, Cumberland, Salem, and Cape May Counties is 22.

22. There are apartment buildings in NYC with more cases than that. Lack of testing could be a factor here, but I have my doubts.

The NJ counties closest to NYC have the most cases.

New York has a similar situation. New York City is the big one, with the four nearby counties of Westchester, Rockland, Nassau, and Suffolk having significant numbers, and moderate numbers up in Orange County, but the four smaller cities of Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Albany have their own minor zones too. The rest of the state has very few infections.

Pennsylvania’s cases are centered around Philadelphia, with most of the counties along the Delaware River border with NJ showing the larger numbers. All of those counties are within the commuting zone to both NYC and Philly. Pittsburgh, out in Allegheny County, is it’s own minor hot spot.

It’s only 80 miles as the corona crow flies from New York City to Philadelphia.

The same situation holds true in Connecticut and Massachusetts. Even in New Hampshire, most of the cases are within 50 miles of Boston.

It will be very interesting, and rather frightening, to see if this wave spreads outwards with time, or if the lower population density and all this lockdown stuff provides a buffer. Or how the situation will change once tens of millions of fast tests come into use across the nation.

I probably have about 2 weeks until the wave hits here. Wonderful.




Related Update: New York State In Total Lockdown. Press release given at the poorly chosen time of 9:11am: 100% of the workforce must stay home if non-essential




This is also obvious. And true. When can we lamp-post the enemedia?

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Posted by Drew458   United States  on 03/27/2020 at 10:29 AM   
Filed Under: • pandemic and epidemic diseases •  
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Oh, and here's some kind of visitor flag counter thingy. Hey, all the cool blogs have one, so I should too. The Visitors Online thingy up at the top doesn't count anything, but it looks neat. It had better, since I paid actual money for it.
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