WAS THIS INDIA’S 9/11? SOME THINK SO. PLEASE DON’T SKIP THIS ARTICLE.
on 11/30/2008 at 08:10 AM
Let’s party. Start it. Go ahead. I may not survive it, but I’ll for damn sure make it that I don’t go alone. You want to dance? Let’s get it on.
This ties back into the idea that we are waging a entirely different kind of war form almost any the West has in the last two centuries (with the POSSIBLE exceptions of Vietnam, the Arabian theater of WWI, the Arab-Israeli conflicts, and the continuing issues in the Northern Balkans stretching back a few centuries).
However, I have a few issues with the analysis:
1. Is this not something of a strategic blunder? The reason the Anti-Terror agreement did not make India safer was because NOBODY EXPECTED IT TO HAPPEN! Indian forces were not actively seeking info, playing a major role in the War on Terror, or actively drilling for this. And it shows.
HOWEVER, if there is ONE thing that people should be careful about, it is waking a sleeping giant. And India IS a sleeping giant. From the land that saw the origin of the term “Juggernaut”, such a naked attack - and one that draws unpleasant memories of previous cases like this- will force a decisive “up or down” movement for India. And India has considerably less reason to go the Spanish route and considerably more reason to go the “American” or “British” route, not the least of which is solidifying the security of their large and volatile country.
And that would not be something they would want, because rarely has this type of gamble paid off.
Imperial Japan tried it with the Western Allies in order to fund its conquest of China, and found itself almost incinerated because of it (whereas, if they simply kept slogging a way with the KMT and other Chinese factions, if worst came to worst, they would have only lost Taiwan and their holding on the Asian mainland).
Ottoman Turkey tried the same regarding the Armenians and Pontic Greeks and in turn found themselves engaged in bloody guerrilla wars that- to the very last day of the Ottoman Empire- continued to force them to devote large numbers of men even as the Western Allied (primarily British Commonwealth) armies cut away at the Empire.
The Manchu Dynasty tried to do this by turning their internal dissidents against the Imperial powers in China, and as a result came into a large shooting war with them (Boxer Revolt) that almost certainly helped lead to their collapse.
As such, if the Islamists are in as dire straits as they were before, it seems difficult to believe that their situation will improve.
2. While this is certainly a powerful humiliation, unless it has similar effects on New Delhi that it did on Madrid, this can hardly translate to a crippling blow. By now, political pressure would be mounting to see a military buildup and a redoubling of civilian defenses. Any targets relieved by this attack will not remain relieved for long, and will likely be targeted even more painfully then ever before once the preparations are complete.
3. This will also likely backfire on them as it is, as this will mean that Indian Muslims who normally would have been susceptible to their influence will probably be repulsed by them or at least forced underground- away from overt support of them.
I’m sorry, but the more I think this through, the less sense this makes as an attack on India, as it seems unlikely to help and very likely to hurt.
But what if this attack is not directed at India, but at Pakistan?
Think about it: which nation is far more unstable? Which nation already has Islamist bases in the open? Which nation defacto ceded territory to them? Which nation has considerable Islamist support amongst both those on the street and those in power?
Which nation only needs to have its secular leaders removed before it becomes another potential theocracy?
Pakistan.
Perhaps, rather then attack Pakistan directly, they attack India, which would lead to larger pressure for the Pakistani leadership, and possible cause their collapse.
Crazy, yes, but it is just crazy enough to work. And, at the very least, they probably didn’t discount that possibility while planning this thing.
Posted by Turtler
11/30/2008 at 04:23 PM
