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Ramirez! (and a bit of News From The North)

 
 


Posted by Drew458    United States   on 12/04/2008 at 02:42 PM   
 
  1. Mark Steyn (a Canadian) had an interesting take on this.
    http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTI5MTBhZjgxYzdjZTE2MzI0N2IzMzExNGIxZGViNzM=
    Essentially the Canadian Prime Minister has the nuclear option of having the Queen dismiss the Governor General. I really don’t fully understand Canadian politics but from my brief experience Harper seems a decent cove. The Liberal head honcho Stephane Dion comes across a bloody lunatic.

    They have only just had an election here and now the liberals who lost have thrown their toys out of the pram and want to bring the Conservatives down. Personally I am hoping for a breakaway of the Western Provinces into a Conservative Canada. The liberal punks can get on with what’s left.

    Posted by LyndonB    Canada   12/04/2008  at  07:34 PM  

  2. Okay folks, here’s what’s happening.

    Some background on Westminster Parliamentary systems, and “Motions of Non-Confidence”.  If such a motion is passed by the house OR the sitting government fails to pass a budget bill in the house, the sitting government is considered to have lost the confidence of the sitting members of Parliament.  At such a time, the PM goes to the Governor General (the Queen’s representative), and either asks them:
    a) To dissolve the government and call an election
    b) To allow another party or parties to try to form a government

    October 14, 2008:  Canada had its 40th general election.  The Conservative Party of Canada gained seats, the Liberals (soft left-wing) and the NDP (hard left-wing) lost seats, and I think the Bloc Quebecois (separatist-left-wing) stayed about the same.  The Conservatives still did not win enough for an absolute majority (51%+ of the ridings), so they got to form a stronger minority government, but still a minority.

    It has come to light that right after the election, the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc started having back-room talks about toppling the government at the first available opportunity they thought they could get away with:  The budget, which is to be presented to the House in January.  When you do this and it becomes public knowledge BEFORE the budget is given its first of three readings in the House of Commons, it’s an implicit admission that you don’t give a rats ass what’s actually in the budget or whether it’s good and fair for Canadians, you just want to throw out the sitting government and seize the levers of power for yourselves.

    Legally, this is permissible.  The 3 parties that lost the election can form a coalition and if the Governor General SO CHOOSES, she can ask them to form a government.  She’s not required to do that, she could say, “Take it to the people with the 41st General Election.”

    Historically, any government that deposes a sitting minority government through a motion of non-confidence suffers for it horribly in the next General election.  Canadians do not like anything that even has the remotist scent of “coup”, so its in their best interests to NOT go to a general election, now that it’s come out that their plan was to depose the government before knowing what the budget would be.

    Because the Governor General has acted in a manner that is consistent with many years of tradition, the PM is very unlikely to approach the Queen and ask her to remove the GG in favor of someone else.  Were the GG acting like a loose cannon, then maybe, but right now?  Not going to happen.

    The PM has approached the GG and asked her to prorogue parliament (suspend it), and she has granted this.  Tradition says she should do this, she’s supposed to trust the sitting PM, and go with his advice unless she feels it’s really out to lunch.

    The reason the PM asked the GG for this, was that he caught wind of the plan of the opposition parties, and tabled a “Financial Update” to take place before the budget in the house, in the hopes that the opposition would bite and attempt to jump too early, trying to claim that by defeating this in the house, it would be an implicit non-confidence vote, and the sitting government would have to step down.  The opposition parties would then petition the GG and say, “We can form a government, and we (together) have more of the popular vote.”

    The thing is, a financial statement isn’t a budget, and even if it was defeated, the sitting PM would not be required by tradition to dissolve government, though he MIGHT choose to do so.

    What ended up happening was that this forced the hand of the very shaky coalition, cracks started to form, and information started to pour forth about how their plan was to force the sitting government to step down and try form a coalition.  This of course, is before they know the details of the budget.  Other factors are coming to light now, none of which make the Liberals, NDP, or Bloc look good, and many Canadians see this as an usurpation of the voters’ will, and an unholy alliance they want no part of.

    So the PM approached the GG and asked her to prorogue Parliament, giving them time to work solely on the budget without being distracted by what would be weeks of nothing but a screaming match during Question Period on the floor of the House.  The GG granted it.

    What happens next?  Parliament resumes in January, the GG will read the Conservative’s budget-bill to the house, it will be debated, and voted on.

    Had the 3 opposition parties kept their plan secret, or had they waited honestly to hear whether the budget was good, fair, and appropriate to our economic times, they could have sold their vote of non-confidence to the people on the grounds they felt the budget was crap and a raw deal for Canadians.  The Governor General, faced with a successful vote of non-confidence, could have in good conscience, granted the Coalition a chance to govern.

    Not now, however.  If a vote of non-confidence happens, in the face of what appears to be a good and fair budget from the Conservatives, the GG is very likely to say that she doesn’t feel the Coalition can form a stable government, and she will send us all back to the polls in the 41st General Election, where the parties will face the ire of the voters, and it’s very likely the Conservatives will get their Majority government.

    (That is, if the media doesn’t spin and lie for the left-wing parties so much that people get suckered.  They always try this...)

    Posted by Argentium G. Tiger    Canada   12/05/2008  at  08:30 AM  

  3. Argentium, that is an excellent summary for what’s going on up on Parliament Hill. If I were Canadian, I’d definitely be pissed off at the Grits, NDPs, and Bloc Québécois and letting my MP just how I feel, eh.

    Posted by Macker    United States   12/05/2008  at  02:10 PM  

  4. Thanks Argentium great explanation.

    Posted by LyndonB    Canada   12/05/2008  at  03:22 PM  

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