let there be light!
GOOD POST!! a good reason to celebrate a good thought in these troubling times.
Ah yes, our dear cow-loving friends. May god (or their incarnations of Vishnu, in any event) shine down upon the majority of them, as they, like we, face troubling times. The fact is that, at the end of the day, it may be the West on one side of the globe, and Australia, New Zealand, India, Japan, and South Korean on the other side against this century’s great threat, be it the Jihad, the Chinese, or the Russians.
All I can say is that India, for all its faults, is one of the few colonies to shake itself out of the slump that occurred in places such as Pakistan, Africa, and the like. In addition, they have pretty strong democratic traditions from their immersion in the British Empire, which they have continued to the present day. In addition, they are really the only nation in Asia capable of matching China on an even basis. So that makes them valuable.
I can only hope that they remain to celebrate this another year.
Posted by Turtler
10/29/2008 at 05:15 AM
Peiper:
“Do you see us at military odds with Chinese?”
Absolutely.
Think about it: China has only recently moved out of the morass of the failed early 20th century state it was and into the powerhouse it is today. It is relatively young on the world stage in its current incarnation, and eager to prove itself. And, with the largest military on the planet, it has ample opportunity to do so militarily should it choose.
And it isn’t like we don’t have “flashpoints” with them that could plunge the world into war in a day. Taiwan, for instance, is relatively weak militarily, and the CCP has long long viewed it as a potential (re)conquest. As a matter of fact, they started several decades ago. Since the end of the Chinese Civil War, they have been slowly conquering their way down the island chain towards the home island. Usually not something that many would view as deliberate, but an unrelated chain of events or “incidents.” However, the pattern has long been to have a surge of conquest, wait until diplomatic issues by major powers (US, Britain, etc) force a stop, refuse to turn conquests back over to Taiwanese, and then stop for several years and let the world pat itself on the back for its “victory”, and then do the whole thing over again. And make no mistake, in spite of a few rare victories, the Taiwanese simply do not have enough to match what China can deploy in the South China Sea without breaking a sweat. And the key advantage is that, once the defensive “net” of islands around Taiwan is gone, Beijing can hand Taiwan an ultimatum: submit or be wiped from the face of the Earth. The fly in the ointment is the West, as, since the Taiwanese navy has yet to fully recover from the Civil War and its defeats against China, the USN is largely the protector of Taiwan, and, unlike its protectee, we actually DO have enough material to compete with China, and we have a standing ultimatum from the end of 1955 that any attacks by the PLA or PLN would result in war, and so they have been lying low since then. However, a single small incident could plunge the world into war.
Second is Korea. Make no mistake, the many politicians and analysts who are talking about how North Korea has broken away from China are largely mistaken. Certainly, relations between the two have cooled and North Korea has been trying to strike out on its own (with relatively little success), but the fact remains that, at the end of the day, China will still back North Korea in most of its endeavors. Maybe they won’t be fighting alongside the KPA if it were to cross the DMZ, but they certainly would if the good guys go the upper hand and were pursuing them North. For countless reasons dating back centuries, China cannot and never has willingly allowed Korea to be united under hostile control, and it has often taken measures to prevent Korean unity period throughout history. So, unless there is something FAR more important that the Chinese would be saving their political credit up to address, it is almost certain that any progress made towards eliminating North Korea or even democratizing it would trigger a Chinese reaction. And it would not be pretty.
The Third is a little bit less obvious, but almost equally important: the Russian Far East and Central Asia. Now, it is important to remember that the “Russian Far East” was in large part carved out of territories that were previously Chinese in the 1600’s, 1700’s, and 1800’s. And China has long wanted them back. Badly. Indeed, this belligerent rhetoric was what trigged a small Mao-Brezhnev punchup over Zhenbao Island in 1969. However, while the Soviets were arguably victorious in that conflict (they still handed the island over to the Chinese, but that is what they had planned to do before some of Mao’s comments became known, and they easily won the campaign in actual battle terms), things have changed vastly since 1969. In 1969, China was still reecovering from the Japanese invasion and a fratricidal civil war between the Nationalists and Communists, in addition to costly and ill-executed interventions in Korea and Indochina whose costs utterly outshone what gains the Chinese were able to make, in addition to being mirred in the Orwellian nightmare of the “Cultural Revolution.” On the other hand, in 1969 the Soviets were the dominant Communist power in the world, with an array of puppet regimes, allies, and spies backed up by millions of men under arms.
This situation has changed beyond belief. At the same time that China has been on the ascendancy in Asia and the Pacific Rim, Russia has been on a rapid decline. While the former has revived a great boon in ecconomic, industrial, and military strengh, the latter has seen its old power dissipating with each passing year. In addition, there is the demographic factor: the loss of 56,545,000+ casualties (not only deaths, mind you, but this is a very, very CONSERVATIVE estimate) in just over 50 years (1904-1956) was a demographic battering that Russia has yet to recover from. Now, even under the best possible circumstances, this would take a few generations to recover from. However, as it is, Russia’s declining birthrate has turned this massive gap into an all-consuming hole that threatens to swallow up Russia as a nation. Couple this with several nations breaking from the Russian fold (including several centuries-old components, such as the Ukraine), and Russia simply does not have enough people to manage its vast territory, and it has already seen some border territories in the Russian Far East be virtually taken over by migrating Chinese. Ultimately, it is possible that Russia, due to its relatively cordial relations with Beijing (again, every time an act comes up to address some sort of evil at the UN, the Chinese and Russians veto it together), that Russia may simply hand over the Far East to China after some “Louisiana Purchase” deal. However, this may be derailed by Putin’s strong nationalist and imperialist desires. In any event, Russia almost certainly would not be able to hold it against a dedicated Chinese strike, and a Strong China replacing a weak Russia in Siberia is not something the West could easily abide. In addition, Central Asia is a conquerer’s dream: militarily weak, divided, and loaded with valuable prizes. Quick show of hands if you think that Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikstan, Turkmenistan etc. Could survive a dedicated Chinese assault, EVEN if (BIG if) they could set aside their differences to fight the common foe? And this means that, between Russia and China, all of Europe’s oil and a good percentage of ours could come under hostile control.
Next, we have the Southern Asian mainland. After a couple decades of animosity, Beijing and Hanoi are now trying to renew their old First-Indochina-War era friendship, and the Chinese have reportedly been flooding the Red Vietnamese military with material and advisers. Now, while the Red Viets never were terribly distinguished militarily, they ARE perhaps the strongest military force in Indochina, and they are easily stronger then their primary rivals, the Thai and Malaysian militaries. Couple this with a Pro-Chinese Burma, and Thailand (and, by extension, Malaysia and Singapore) are stuck in the middle of a sea of red. And it has long been a fear of the West and a dream of Hanoi to establish dominance over the Straits of Malacca, which would give them an immense amount of power over International trade, and allow them to indirectly control much of the Suez Canal. And if the Vietnamese Reds were aligned with China, that would make it even worse. Secondly, we have the Indian frontier, where hot skirmishes between India and China have been ongoing for decades. China actually has conquered and maintains control of territory India claims is rightfully theirs, and its aggressive stance towards India convinced even Nehru- Socialist, Capitalist-hating, Isolationist Nehru- of China’s hostile intentions. Fortunately, the Indians have fared better, and have beaten back pretty much every major Chinese incursion since then. But a dedicated Chinese push is still something very much feared in New Delhi.
And, finally, we reach Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East: Chinese influence in these regions remains subtle but significant. In Africa, they have had a presence since the 1960’s and have been building up a ghost of what could be called a colonial empire through local influence, which has allowed them to gain control of several areas in Africa. Some of the most heavily affected areas-though by no means the only ones- are Zimbabwe, the “Democratic Republic” of the Congo, and Tanzania. In Latin America, it has been helping supply and arm the “Castro-Chavez-Morales” Axis against us, and doing quite well (if you look, you can find sales records lying around on the web). In the Middle East, their influence is still rather weak, but it is getting around, as the oil issues have led them to cultivate influence in there, and god knows how it will end.
Think these things are far fetched? Consider this: America’s conflicts with Germany were more-or-less decided by what amounts to a German Internal Memo (the so-called “Cuba Memorandum") which declared that, “regardless of potential future promises”, the United States had to be considered “a nation hostile to the German Empire and her interests”, and outlined German plans to “breach the American Sphere of influence in the Americas and Eastern Pacific.” This was issued in 1898, after Germany’s attempts to woo Spain collapsed after the Spanish defeat in the Spanish-American war, which Germany regarded as a crippling blow against its Pacific and Latin American interests. They had troops in Cuba AND the Phillipines fighting the nationalist rebels who helped fight the US, and, afterwards, several under-the-surface conflicts in Samoa, China, Colombia (whom they tried to interest in a plan to retake Panama and the Panama Canal), Argentina (the Falklands), and Mexico (of Zimmerman telegram infamy) in the leadup to WWI. After Hitler rose to power, he reinstated the German memo and tried to do much the same thing in Latin America, in addition to intrigues with both Nationalist China and Japan. YEARS before the US ever began lend-lease or the related deals.
These small brushfires may provide the fuel for the next great conflagration, and, if and when China opposes us, we will need India to help. Because, even if we never fight a Chinese army in the field, we must be prepared to fight enemy forces trained and armed by them.
“I got the feeling, perhaps wrongly so, that it was in the field of trade that we might butt heads. But doesn’t it hold true with friends as well? At least somewhat.”
You are missing the difference: there is a REASON why some conflicts start wars and others do not. For instance, there was a reason that the Fashoda and Niger River incidents between Britain and France in the late 1890’s were soothed over in spite of hundreds of casualties in the later while the killings of Franz Ferdinand and Sophie triggered WWI. In the former, Britain and France did not particularly like each other yet, but both viewed Germany as the primary foe, and both were willing to compromise in order to hold out the hope of a united front against Germany later. In addition, their shared Democratic heritage was another powerful link when compared with the militarist dictatorship of the Kaiserreich. In the latter, the tense situation in the Balkans and the fact that Austria-Hungary was looking for an excuse to eliminate Yugoslav nationalism helped to push Austria-Hungary to war against the Serbian-Montenegrin alliance, thus starting the first modern World War. Quite simply, when there are reasons to compromise and maintain the peace, even severe incidents can be smoothed over, while where there are tensions and open desire for war, even a prick can send the situation over the edge. So, our competition with Chinese industry takes on a different character then competition with, say, French Industry, as one is relatively friendly rivalry, while the other is more-or-less partially economic warfare.
“Doesn’t help either when we try and lecture them on human rights.”
I am sorry, but I fail to see how a more stable Chinese regime with less opposition is a GOOD thing.
“I can see where they might see that as interfering in their internal business.”
And when they stop KNOWINGLY putting dangerous products out to market, stop openly standing opposed to us, and stop funding and equipping our declared foes, THEN I may be more receptive to the idea.
But, until then, India promises to be a loyal and ideologically-close ally against both the Islamists and the butchers in Beijing. And I can’t say I am not happy about that.
/Damn, that was a long post, wasn’t it?
Posted by Turtler
10/29/2008 at 10:38 PM
