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on 08/19/2020 at 09:22 AM
Oof. Mine wasn’t that bad but I had pre-ordered a vinyl record (yep those are actually becoming very popular again) from one of my favorite Swedish metal bands Avatar (they formed well before the movie with the blue folk, before you ask) Album release date was Aug 7. It shipped from VA Aug 5th via DHL, someone made it down south to NC, THEN back up to KY and arrived Aug 12. Meanwhile, the merch I pre-ordered (CD and different vinyl versions) from their online shop got here TWO FULL DAYS before album release (coming from Nashville TN to KY)
Meanwhile Dandy Andy the Dem state gov of KY is wringing his hands over covid19. We’re under a mask mandate, bars are closing at 10pm, restaurants are at 25% capacity, upcoming State Fair is closed to the public but HEY! we’re still having the KY Derby (it got postponed to first week in Sept, a first time it’d been postponed since 1945) and we’re still letting protesters walk all over downtown Louisville (we estimate about 80% of downtown businesses have their glass storefronts boarded up. It’s fucking heartbreaking to see my hometown like this) Oh and the Repubs on the Metro Council filed a resolution for a vote of no confidence in Dem mayor Greg Fischer (he’s on his last term but they want him to resign now)
-eyes half drank bourbon and Coke- sorry. I kinda needed that rant.
Rant away!
I don’t want to go on about the ‘rona anymore, but I was reading some essay posts that make a lot of sense to me. The virus is in it’s last stages; herd immunity is nearly there, and the required level is quite a bit lower than predicted. Gee, surprise?
Follow the data. When the excess death by Covid curve meets the standard mortality curve, then it’s done. Oh sure, there will still be cases here and there. That’s the thing about viruses ... viruses of ALL kinds ... they’re here forever, and there isn’t a damn thing you can do about it. But once the curves meet, the number of Covid caused deaths will be so small that it won’t change the overall seasonal death rate numbers.
Lockdowns don’t do jack. Isolation, social distancing, excessive sanitizing, maybe even masks ... all of it together gives a nearly imperceptible benefit. And the spike thing down south, southwest? Even if the numbers are accurate, and most are conflated quite a bit, it turns out that virus spread is affected by latitude. Northern latitudes get it first, and usually worst. Like every other outbreak, the covid peak lasts about 6 weeks, with a 1-2 ramp up and 2-4 weeks decline. This knowledge has only been around for 170 years, but like everything else medically known, was thrown out the window with this “totally new” coronavirus. Except it isn’t even close to totally. Many of the older treatments work to some extent, as do practices going back at least to the 1918 pandemic, as does nutritional information that’s nearly 50 years old by now.
So the prediction is that the ‘rona will be over by the end of August.
READ THIS: https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/2020/7/27/lockdownlunacythree
WHEN THE CURVES MEET THE PANDEMIC IS OVER
(AFAIK, we are in MMWRweek 34 at this point, so the two curves are well off the right edge of the above graph, and either have met already or are just a tiny bit apart)
