Sunday - May 10, 2020

chewing the numbers, again

As time goes by, more and more data about the COVID virus becomes available.

And more and more, it looks to me like we’ve been conned.

Pray for the people at nursing homes, veterans retirement homes, mental hospitals, and development centers. They are the ones who are sick and dying, far more than their small part of the population.

My little country of Hunterdon is now the 3rd least infected county in the state. 1st and 2nd place are two counties down at the south end of the state that are pretty much empty. Big areas, almost no population. And thus almost no cases.

Hunterdon County has around 125,000 residents, and 710 cases. My little piece of it, Union Twonship, has 5500 residents and 147 cases. But the New Truth is that we also have a rather large county developmental center for the special needs folks. 600 residents live there. They report 109 active cases. That’s 18%, which is catastrophic. But it also means that they’re 74% of the cases in our township, and 15% of the cases in the county. This holds basically true around the county, with the cases at LTC making up 40% of all cases in the county, and 60% of the deaths. Up north in hard hit Bergen County, while the LTC cases are only 24%, they are 59% of the deaths.

I know I’ve said the same thing several times already, but it isn’t sinking in to our leaders’ heads. These are people who generally do not go out in public, and sadly aren’t visited all that much by outsiders. They are part of the population, but not really part of the equation. Without a doubt the pandemic in their little world is epidemic and endemic. They’re being hammered and there isn’t anything that can be done about it. The staff there is also significantly infected, and those people DO go out in the world. Are they an infectious vector for the rest of us? Are they the ones bringing it in to these places and spreading it around and around? Maybe both. Or neither. I really don’t know.

But I do know that without the cases in the HDC, the numbers for my township are 4900 residents and 38 cases. 3/4 of 1 percent. Which is pretty damn small overall. And these are total numbers after almost 4 1/2 months of infection. January 1 to May 10. It doesn’t amount to much.

So why on earth is the lockdown continuing? Especially with our governor’s impossible standards of 2+ weeks of declining numbers, alongside ramping up testing to amazing 20,000 tests per day, but not providing any additional testing sites. It’s an impossibility. Is it designed to fail??

The Governor has to set more reasonable goals and requirements for opening the state up, so that Hunterdon County and New Jersey can get back to business, Freeholder Matt Holt announced at the Board’s May 5thmeeting. 

Holt, the Freeholder Board’s Economic Development liaison, stated, “Businesses that are still open have adapted to protecting people’s health with directional signage, social distance marks on the floors, handing out sanitary wipes, mandatory face coverings, and plexiguard shields. Let’s give closed businesses a chance toopen andimplement the same safety precautions to get our economy moving again.”

The veteran Hunterdon Freeholder, who has served on the Board for thirteen years, said, “Governor Murphy has put forth parameters for re-starting the economythat, in my opinion, sets the bar too high –it sets up roadblocks and nearly unobtainable goals.Instead of creating roadblocks, the state should be looking to clear them, to get New Jersey back to work.”Holt stated, “We recognize COVID-19 is contagious and can be dangerous.  That is why precautions must be taken with any business re-opening. But the Governor’s plan is out of sync.

Called Restoring Economic Health Through Public Health, the plan requires 14 consecutive days of reductions in COVID-19 positive cases in the state. Yet the plan also calls for 20,000 tests per day statewide by the end of the month.  But more testing will result in more positive tests, and with the increased testing we may not hit 14 straight daysof decline in positive casesuntil sometime late in the summeror later.”Holt added, “And while the Governor’s plan calls for increased testing, right now the Governor has not set up even one state test site –thetest sitesare all either county run or the two federal sites.Quite frankly the entire plan is frustrating as proposed.”

Posted by Drew458     on 05/10/2020 at 05:55 PM   
Filed Under: • New Jersey • pandemic and epidemic diseases • Pandemic Pandemonium •  
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It's been a long strange trip without you Skipper, but thanks for pointing us in the right direction and giving us a swift kick in the behind to get us going. Keep lookin' down on us, will ya? Thanks.

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